Phoenix Associates Land Syndicate (fka PBLSQ)

[gnulnx]

Fun with numbers

From the last shareholder pr Paul states:
"Phoenix expects revenues through the 1st three quarters of 2006 to be above $125 million, and is anticipating revenues for the 4th quarter of about $81 million. This number was revised down because of slumping natural gas prices. Total revenues for 2006 are therefore expected to come in at about $206 million. Because of a substantial profit to be realized at the Best Jets Group of Companies, net pretax revenues of Phoenix could reach 10% of gross revenues."

Basically PA is saying 2006 should see revenues of 206M with a 10% profit margin. Later in that pr he states that the OS will be no greater than 815K shares with 40% restricted. Lets assume for a second that PA is way to optimistic. Let's assume that we get no revenue for the 4th quarter. That put's us at 125M revenue for 2006. let's also assume the PA way overstates the profit margin of 10%. We will assume 5%.

OS = 815M
06 reve = 125M
margin = 5%

earnings = 125*.05 = 6.25M

eps = 6.25M/815M = .007

Right now we are trading with a fractional PE of .85. Good lord this is utterly insane.

Assuming my fictional scenario above this means that people who buy shares at .006 will see there money double when the PE is a measly 1.7....and it will double again when the PE rising to a stagering 3.42.

The assets alone are worth over 100M. This allows for a very fair bookvalue of around 10 cents.

This company is so grossly undervalued that it's simply not possible that we are trading subpenny. I'm going to pinch myself and wakeup from this dream....right after I buy more shares!

No this wasn't a pump post...just been awhile since I played with the numbers and figured I'd share with everyone.

Next year...we rock.