Sunday, November 03, 2019 9:04:16 PM
beautiful and clean OS KM curves, after they are separated,
diverge to the end, and HR is 0.5, The HEAT trial shows
the OS advantage is clearly related to the duration of
RFA time. I do not know how to determine how much RFA time
is required for each OPTIMA trial patients, but I believe
CLSN may ask trial Drs to RFA to the longest time possible
for each trial patients since longer the better chance of
survival in Thermodox arm, hence I speculate OPTIMA may
perform better OS than the heat subgroup HR 0.65, from
this reasoning, I am very buillish on first look HR value.
If first look stops OPTIMA for efficacy, It mean Thermodox
is "the treatment of HCC with curative intent" and I am up my
CLSN stock price target to $25, a $500M markey cap, very very
conservative 1X peak sales estimate of $500M.
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