Thursday, November 30, 2006 10:37:19 PM
$HGX & QQQQ, Hi Greenstreet, $HGX is upgraded today. I hope that you had a good day.
This is my market thoughts.
Best Wishes.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
After softer economic news during PreMarket, markets traded down after the open, then found a support at an intra support as it bounced off during mid day as shown on intraday chart, for QQQQ 5m small rising wedge and a coil formation on 60m chart, recovering most of losses going into close, finishing the day unchanged. Market internal was fairly positive, A/D 1.80 and 1.14, since this would normally be a part of EOM action.
Bond market Treasury notes fell as 10yr closing at 4.46, the lowest level since Jan 06. Chicago purchasing mgt report was much weaker 49.9 vs 55 showing weak numbers across different categories. $USD again fell while Oil traded up which do not bode well for stock markets.
Home builders are upgraded today by BOA to neutral from cautious. As shown on HGX chart, it was trading up with "Price Channel" formation as it broke out of 2-wk consolidation, however, we need to see the final confirmation of breakout as it breaks above the upper channel TL. QQQQ As commented yesterday, it still didn't break above 44.20 area with confirmation which is the intra upper resistance. As stated above, it is forming a small rising wedge on 5m chart, hence, we need to look for a confirmation.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HGX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p42425454012&a=90...
As anticipated, market is consolidating even though we saw an initial volatility on Monday setting up for a retracement which we are now seeing retracement of 61.80% of the Monday decline. My bias is to downside even though during the last four month, we saw the repetition of the same formation trading higher. However, be aware of many traders are projecting $SPX to make a new high from the Tuesday intra reversal.
Conclusion: We need to see a confirmation for directional bias since it remained in a tight range during the last three days.
Note) I signaled a buy at the Jun - July low, and now commented to take profit even though I do not have a ST top. Of course, for small investors/traders can exit markets anytime they want, big investors would have slowly exited their positions a while ago, as we can see through COT charts.
http://www.trend-signals.com/Comments/2006/2006NOV.htm
NASDAQ is also supported by the breakout TL, however, NASDAQ leadership is increasingly narrowed during the last several months as I noted negative divergences. We have a few big cap stocks are taking NASDAQ to higher which is showing more risk to downside. GOOG and AAPL were the leaders with MSFT trading higher with VISTA release news as I commented that MSFT VISTA release will help NASDAQ a few months ago. Now we have the VISTA release news with now analysts upgrades that we saw a week ago. AAPL is also upgraded today, trying to push market to higher, however, when the fund managers decide to take profit, many will try to exit at the same time. That will cause a faster momentum to downside. From Jun-Jul 06 bottom, 20% profit is a fairly good return for ST trading.
This is my market thoughts.
Best Wishes.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
After softer economic news during PreMarket, markets traded down after the open, then found a support at an intra support as it bounced off during mid day as shown on intraday chart, for QQQQ 5m small rising wedge and a coil formation on 60m chart, recovering most of losses going into close, finishing the day unchanged. Market internal was fairly positive, A/D 1.80 and 1.14, since this would normally be a part of EOM action.
Bond market Treasury notes fell as 10yr closing at 4.46, the lowest level since Jan 06. Chicago purchasing mgt report was much weaker 49.9 vs 55 showing weak numbers across different categories. $USD again fell while Oil traded up which do not bode well for stock markets.
Home builders are upgraded today by BOA to neutral from cautious. As shown on HGX chart, it was trading up with "Price Channel" formation as it broke out of 2-wk consolidation, however, we need to see the final confirmation of breakout as it breaks above the upper channel TL. QQQQ As commented yesterday, it still didn't break above 44.20 area with confirmation which is the intra upper resistance. As stated above, it is forming a small rising wedge on 5m chart, hence, we need to look for a confirmation.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HGX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p42425454012&a=90...
As anticipated, market is consolidating even though we saw an initial volatility on Monday setting up for a retracement which we are now seeing retracement of 61.80% of the Monday decline. My bias is to downside even though during the last four month, we saw the repetition of the same formation trading higher. However, be aware of many traders are projecting $SPX to make a new high from the Tuesday intra reversal.
Conclusion: We need to see a confirmation for directional bias since it remained in a tight range during the last three days.
Note) I signaled a buy at the Jun - July low, and now commented to take profit even though I do not have a ST top. Of course, for small investors/traders can exit markets anytime they want, big investors would have slowly exited their positions a while ago, as we can see through COT charts.
http://www.trend-signals.com/Comments/2006/2006NOV.htm
NASDAQ is also supported by the breakout TL, however, NASDAQ leadership is increasingly narrowed during the last several months as I noted negative divergences. We have a few big cap stocks are taking NASDAQ to higher which is showing more risk to downside. GOOG and AAPL were the leaders with MSFT trading higher with VISTA release news as I commented that MSFT VISTA release will help NASDAQ a few months ago. Now we have the VISTA release news with now analysts upgrades that we saw a week ago. AAPL is also upgraded today, trying to push market to higher, however, when the fund managers decide to take profit, many will try to exit at the same time. That will cause a faster momentum to downside. From Jun-Jul 06 bottom, 20% profit is a fairly good return for ST trading.
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