Thursday, October 24, 2019 1:34:40 PM
Ramu Shut Down/LME Stocks Plunging
Good Morning,
We're seeing a reversal in nickel prices after word has circulated about the Ramu's nickel processing plant in Papau New Guinea has been ordered shut down. This disrupts almost 2% of the global nickel market when supply is already being squeezed. Spot is $7.63 up from $7.38 earlier in the session.
https://mine.onepng.com/2019/10/ramu-nickle-mines-basamuk-processing.html
Next, the LME is reviewing nickel trading records after historic declines in inventories. There is less than 90,000 tonnes available, and over half is earmarked by one owner, creating anxiety among buyers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-22/lme-starts-review-of-nickel-trading-after-inventories-plunge
The nickel market flipped from backwardation to contango this week, perhaps normalizing from extreme moves that began in early September. Nickel could remain in consolidation for another few weeks, but upward price shocks are a real possibility due to the physical market.
Last but not least, a new research report on Giga Metals (GIGA/HNCKF) was released by a 3rd party firm yesterday. I can't share it until early next week as their clients have a 7 day exclusive before broad circulation. But I will say that their fair value price for GIGA, based on $7 nickel, is $1.01 CDN. To me, the most exciting demonstration in their model, is the incredible leverage Giga has to the nickel price.
Fair value rockets to $6.58 per share at just $9 nickel and $12.15 per share with $11 nickel prices! Giga remains the best leveraged way to play the nickel market in my opinion due to the enormity of their asset and quality of concentrate they've proven to already produce. A new PEA in the next 90 days or so should be a major catalyst as well.
Gold Investment Letter
Sincerely,
Eric Muschinski
Gold Investment Letter
It is easy to figure out what you believe. The difficulty lies in determining - is what you believe the truth.
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