ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)

[LordDarley]

So, what's the big picture?

For years, ANIP has been plagued by sort selling, and our convertible debt holders are institutions (like Mangrove Partners) which do this all the time. Anyone who trades stock of small companies with convertible debt simply accepts this as a fact of life and waits for the day when the debt is retired.

My theory is that as we approach December 1, the short selling comes to an end, and positions either expire or are bought back. The parties to the convertible hedge who are on the hook for every dollar of stock appreciation over $69.48 up to $96.21 will also have covered themselves.

In other words, the artificial suppression of share value due to short-selling by convertible debt holders will be over. I don't have information on how the counterparties to the convertible hedge have covered their risks, but whatever overhang they are causing will be over, too.

I think we are already seeing this in the stock appreciation in recent days, and unless there is some horrible news in the November 5 call or a huge crash in the market, we should be on the way to at least $90/share by the end of the year.