Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[lightrock]

If we believe the leak from Ergomed that it is 96% complete

Then, it could report at any moment.

144 days comes from what would appear to be the average of about 12 days per event.

The math says 144 days

But the math has a 'margin of error' that is quite large

The reason for that is because the entire population that is still alive is at or beyond 3 years into the study. All living subjects are rolling dice at or beyond 3 years in a survival curve.

In other words, if you follow the math at one event every 12 days, that is one thing.

If you follow the other math, then 12 events could happen in one day.

The 12 days per event is an average, could be more, could be less.

That is my best shot and the shotgun pellets are all over the place.

Lightrock, fascinating & thanks. It sounds you think the new estimated completion data of December is just another place marker that'll be pushed out again?

If December was an estimate based on data, wouldn't we have top line in January then final end of March to mid April, or earlier? In that scenario, we'd have leaks in December/January giving us a nice boost in PPS. 100% probability of leaks with that many in the know. That scenario would make a gamble on discounted January calls attractive.

Anyone else think the timeline discussions might be based on what they want us to believe or worst case scenarios? Geert is putting out padded timelines to let shorts think they have more time than they really have. Could we be underestimating how badly he wants to hurt them? Or, this could all be a dream.