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NY Crude Oil Futures - Monthly Summary Analysis »» New Pattern Forming
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2019

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Oct. 18, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5378 and is trading up about 18% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 5099 yet it is trading below last month's close of 5407.


Immediately, the market remains neutral on the short-term levels of both momentum and trend on our indicators while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bearish.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 106% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8171 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4051 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come November in NY Crude Oil Futures. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 6338 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 5284 closing yesterday at 5378. We now need to close beneath 5485 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6660 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 7690 back during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4810 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Observing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past Monthly session. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 6660 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5052 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 4435 on a closing basis.

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