es1 was projecting $35 to $75/kilo
My computations reflected his assumptions about the price of our silk. I was pointing out he made an arithmetic mistake that doubled the revenue, market cap, and PPE ratio.
If we take the figures you are quoting, that puts our silks in the range of $200 to $300/kilo OR they are anticipating production might build beyond 100 metric tons/year.
The problem with $200 to $300/kilo is that applications will be few and far between. Economics is based on a price/demand tradeoff: the higher the price, the lower the demand. KBLB might get $300/kilo for medical sutures (where not much fabric is needed) and (if they could ever get it to work) for ballistic shoot packs that were light years beyond Kevlar. I've not seen any performance data that would support ballistic applications with such a premium price point. Even $200/kilo for a shoot pack application would be unlikely.
At $100 to $150/kilo, we can probably break into the technical fabrics market with blended fabrics. This could include upscale shoes and perhaps designer fabrics as well. Polartec might be willing to develop protective garments for the military at that range. They won't buy our fabric if we charge $300/kilo.
$75 per kilo opens more doors. $50 a lot more.
I'm guessing that Jon and Kim were sometimes thinking about the short-term and other times having a little longer-term perspective. Did they indicate whether they were talking about MS, DS, DS2, or some combination of the three? Obviously MS will sell for a lesser price than DS2. What mix of production are they envisioning? All of these are problems with the casual thoughts they appeared to be expressing during the shareholder's meeting. I don't think they presented a formal business proposal that showed quantities, prices, markets, types of silk, etc. This is why it's hard to understand their comments, even the ones you have on tape.
