Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) - Monthly Summary Analysis »» Under Pressure
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2019

THE ANALYTICAL POSTURE CURRENTLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 11, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2681659 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. Currently, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in October is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 2574346 intraday yet it is trading at least below last month's close of 2691683.


Up to this moment in time, the market remains bullish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are neutral.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come November in Dow Jones Industrials so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 2730673 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 2597822 closing yesterday at 2681659. We now need to close beneath 2661621 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2606258 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 9 months. The previous low of 2171253 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 2533960 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 2739868 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend.

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