Followers | 46 |
Posts | 1909 |
Boards Moderated | 0 |
Alias Born | 12/08/2016 |
Wednesday, October 09, 2019 11:44:20 AM
The Illinois adult use program, which launches January 1st granted ridiculous concessions to the existing dozen cultivators holding 20 licenses and sites to service the adult use market, which will be the 2nd largest in the nation until Florida or New York adult use commences.
Currently in IL, wholesales are near $4,000lb, on the shelf for $60-$80 an 1/8th of flower, and concentrates up to almost $100 a gram. Supply at the moment for a little more than 50,000 patients (50k......) is near zero, yet the same who cannot supply 50k market fought quite hard for exclusive rights for a 1MM+/$3B+ market).
The fine print here is the limited cultivation licenses can expand basically without limit. Future licenses are capped at 210,000 sq. ft., but is not clear for the existing cultivators. The point being, they can expand, today that facility as large and as much as they can afford and basically be guaranteed of every single gram produced being immediately sold for just about the highest prices in the nation for quite some time to come.
While there will be a small number of future cultivation licenses issued, it will not be enough, nor fast enough to most likely catch up with demand for years to come.
One can imagine the desirability of 2 adult use dispensaries (when they are limited) in Chicago metro.
Personally, I thought the original PCann deal was nonsensical ($682MM I believe) as the cost to develop those holdings was a fraction, and I'm of the school of developing things from scratch for pennies.
Even with potential restrictions on build out of 210,000 sq. ft., which I believe is only for future (10) cultivators (If they opt to open that process), that option alone is worth more than the entire $20MM.
There is further fine print there as the IL adult use grants existing medical additional adult use retail locations, and it isn't clear if they received the additional adult use locations (only), or the original (2) medical sites, which would carry onsite medical and adult use, and 2 additional off site adult use.
Much better deal as the original deal values each and every location and license at I believe $26MM.
There are currently, due to the above (limited licenses, serious supply and demand issues, enormous expansion for cultivation) endless buyers for IL market cultivation sites in the $20-$40MM range for existing facilities. Definitely sellers market.
IL adult use about to be one of the greatest adult use trainwrecks ever.....but for cultivators, the most profitable situation pretty much ever in the history of the industry. (dozen cultivators with 20 sites who can't supply 50k patients but granted the ability to expand without limit and exclusively service a 1MM+ person market)
It's too personal to be business.
FEATURED Element79 Gold Corp. Appoints Kevin Arias as Advisor to the Board of Directors, Strengthening Strategic Leadership • Sep 18, 2024 10:29 AM
Mawson Finland Limited Further Expands the Known Mineralized Zones at Rajapalot: Palokas step-out drills 7 metres @ 9.1 g/t gold & 706 ppm cobalt • MFL • Sep 17, 2024 9:02 AM
PickleJar Announces Integration With OptCulture to Deliver Holistic Fan Experiences at Venue Point of Sale • PKLE • Sep 17, 2024 8:00 AM
North Bay Resources Announces Mt. Vernon Gold Mine Bulk Sample, Sierra County, California • NBRI • Sep 11, 2024 9:15 AM
One World Products Issues Shareholder Update Letter • OWPC • Sep 11, 2024 7:27 AM
Kona Gold Beverage Inc. Reports $1.225 Million in Revenue and $133,000 Net Profit for the Quarter • KGKG • Sep 10, 2024 1:30 PM