I'm referring to the sustained share price. The buying and selling is unpredictable; the only thing one can predict is that there will be buying and selling. And it makes the share price volatile. It could go to $.30 or more, but it would not likely stay there; any sustained price above the low $.20's would entail a very rich deal with big upfront money. Don't count on it. (The people who insisted otherwise before the first deal hopefully learned that lesson now.)
What will drive the price upward from here is a B-OM deal. Yes it will create new demand. And of course there will be selling pressure too. Put the volatility aside. What matters is what the market values the company at post-deal. It will be higher than here. Perhaps double. That is the sustained share price I am referring to. And double means low $.20's, or approx $100MM equity value (ie, fully diluted market cap). Btw this is higher than the MC that Yahoo finance etc shows. They only count A shares, which is the registered, traded equity. This should not be used blindly, for the reason I've given.
Inexperienced investors also use the $4.X high share price as a reference point. Another mistake. A lot has happened in the last 5 years, good and bad. Our pipeline took major hits (P failure, no B-ABSSSI deal, no B-OM BTD, K delays) and our sharecount skyrocketed to toxic funding, pink-sheet joke levels. Adjusting for all that, to reach the equivalent market cap now means a share price high of around $1. That won't happen again until we've got more good, more advanced trial results from B and K. The pop we had earlier this year? That was before the market realized all the new issuance that lies ahead. I suspect that buyer assumed a bigger first B deal and didn't expect that mammoth additional 300MM share authorization.
