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Saturday, October 05, 2019 2:18:51 PM
What will drive the price upward from here is a B-OM deal. Yes it will create new demand. And of course there will be selling pressure too. Put the volatility aside. What matters is what the market values the company at post-deal. It will be higher than here. Perhaps double. That is the sustained share price I am referring to. And double means low $.20's, or approx $100MM equity value (ie, fully diluted market cap). Btw this is higher than the MC that Yahoo finance etc shows. They only count A shares, which is the registered, traded equity. This should not be used blindly, for the reason I've given.
Inexperienced investors also use the $4.X high share price as a reference point. Another mistake. A lot has happened in the last 5 years, good and bad. Our pipeline took major hits (P failure, no B-ABSSSI deal, no B-OM BTD, K delays) and our sharecount skyrocketed to toxic funding, pink-sheet joke levels. Adjusting for all that, to reach the equivalent market cap now means a share price high of around $1. That won't happen again until we've got more good, more advanced trial results from B and K. The pop we had earlier this year? That was before the market realized all the new issuance that lies ahead. I suspect that buyer assumed a bigger first B deal and didn't expect that mammoth additional 300MM share authorization.
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