Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) - Monthly Summary Analysis »» Turning Back UP
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2019

CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 27, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2682025 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. This price action here in September is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 2730673 intraday and is still trading above that high of 2717559.


At the moment, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bullish.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come November in Dow Jones Industrials so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 2533960 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 2717559 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2606258 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 8 months. The previous low of 2171253 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 2739868 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend.

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