My SILJ price projectsion and other thoughts, fwiw..
tootalljones Friday, 09/20/19 10:18:08 AM
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HISTORY LESSON AND OTHER PROJECTIONS: silj is my preferred vehicle of today's current Big 4 (gdx, gdxj,sil and silj), and it now prices at $10.16, with silver the metal currently 17.76. All of these 4 will do fabulously well if we are in a bull market, or what some term, a resumption of the bull market of the last decade which paused starting in 2011.
Remember, bull markets in any commodity begin when nobody is looking. One can here theorize that this new bull or second half LEG, began when gold broke through long term resistance at around 1360 this past summer.
Here are some rough price targets below. I think it is clear Trump is a major inflationist. The odds are overwhelming he wins reelection but even if not, if the DEMS win, gold and silver will continue to go higher.
The reason will gravitate to silver vs. gold is that silver is simply a better value.
Historically in the 1930s, and from 1975 to 1981, and from 2002 to 2011, silver has far outperformed gold. So too with silver stocks even more so than gold stocks, and by an even bigger percentage.
And in the back 3 years of these precious metals bulls silver exploded higher and higher, while gold still did very good without question.
I am looking at something like this:
Year end:
2019: Silver at 20, Silj at 12.50
2020: Silver at 28, silj at 25
2021: silver at 42, silj at 45
2022: silver at 65, silj at 65 (price exploding)
2023: Silver at 100, silj at 120 (Bitcoin mania year)
vs. gold during the same period
POG may move 100% (easily) to $3000, and GDX, its primary gold stock proxy, which today is 28, will be 95 bucks. (a 3 to 1 ratio to the metal), but with silver, we see the metal up 500%, and silj up 600%.
These moves are similar to what has happened in the past PM bull market. And the ratios are not perfectly in sync, NOT PERFECTLY SYMETRICAL, AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, IN BOTH THE SILVER METAL AND THE SILVER STOCKS, but that is the way prior ones have been in reality, but even more extreme, believe it or not.
for instance, in this century's earlier bull market, silver started priced at an incredible 4 bucks and finished at $49, up an amazing 1200%, and silver stocks even greater percentages
So here, history will show silver bottoming at $13.50, bu but finishing up almost 800%, with many premiere silver stocks (since silj did not exist until recently), being up well over 1000%.....
You can say I am dreaming, but as you can see, I am suggesting an outline to this current bull market that is less extreme (but still incredible) than this earlier bull. THE REALITY IS THIS, I am suggesting outrageous returns but these returns would be substantially less than the other 3 PM bull markets of the last century.
If I gave you the numbers for the earlier 2 bull makrets, the ones of the last century, and extrapolated to our current bull market, nobody would believe me. There were stocks in the 1930s bull market, for instance, that went from 5 to bucks in price to over $300 bucks. YUP!
For the 1970s bull market, silver went from around a dollar (remember the term, a silver dollar) to $50 bucks.....but in truth, this involved manipulation by the HUNT brothers, which only lasted a month, but silver for perhaps 6+ months was up there around $25 bucks (before the last blowoff "hunt brother" mania under which it doubled in several months.
So this was once again, a far wilder bull market than what I have just sketched above.
So my predictions above are of the least crazy, gold and silver bull market, of the 4 i have identied. In other words, the most conservative price projections of all 4 PM Bulls. Why there are PM bulls is another question entirely, for another day. If you don't think such things exist any longer, you would be wrong. Look at Bitcoin, considered the modern electronic gold, it is up from 10 bucks to 10,000 as I type (and down from around 20,000), over the past 5 or 6 years.
