Tuesday, November 28, 2006 4:52:55 PM
It seems that this would be the most logical time for Stoll to raise some cash via the shelf offering. I'm not certain how a shelf offering actually works but I presume that they will be able to buy large amounts of shares at either the market price at the time or a discount to this price. This seems like it would put the shares for sale anywhere from $1 (a nice easy number to work with, albeit low) to whatever the market price is at the time. Logically, it would be disadvantageous for Stoll to get the entire $35 Million all upfront at such a price per share, destroying the value for current shareholders quite considerably.
So the question is how much should we look to expect as for this initial shelf offering that appears inevitable? Toying with some numbers it seems that Cortex would need approximately $3.5 Million per quarter to continue safely operating. This comes at a time when they will get little, if any revenue, as the joint research with Servier ends in December I believe. I'm thinking that Stoll will want to secure enough for atleast 2 quarters to allow some down time between offerings. That will give the company time to hopefully get the dosage ordeal settled with the FDA and perhaps have some good news to boost the overall morale and interest in Cortex.
In short, I foresee Stoll raising between $7 and $8 Million initially, by selling somewhere between 5.185M and 8M shares, sometime within the next month or so. Comments as to my logic would be appreciated as this is relatively new territory for me.
Thanks for your time.
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