Petro Matad (PRTDF)

[pro_s2009]

As its been brought it up I have run some figures to get an idea of the minor difference flow rates would have to valuations. Using 60US$ a barrel

Expectation is 200 bopd per well. You can discount down say 15% if the flow rate is a more conservative 100 bopd. You can mark up 30% if the flow rate is a more exceptional 400 bopd.


NPV10 based on Heron being 25 MMBO recoverable 145 million US$ = 118 million GBP circa 18p a share @200bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 40 MMBO recoverable 260 million US$ = 213 million GBP circa 32p a share @200bopd per well @60US$ oil price


NPV10 based on Heron being 25 MMBO recoverable 124 million US$ = 102 million GBP circa 15.4p a share @100bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 40 MMBO recoverable 222 million US$ = 213 million GBP circa 27.5p a share @100bopd per well @60US$ oil price


NPV10 based on Heron being 25 MMBO recoverable 189 million US$ = 118 million GBP circa 23.5p a share @400bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 40 MMBO recoverable 338 million US$ = 213 million GBP circa 42p a share @400bopd per well @60US$ oil price


Running those figures with a 50% farm out to PetroChina who drill the development wells for that farm in cost......

25 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 200 bopd per well = 9p a share
40 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 200 bopd per well = 16p a share

Best case 40 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 400 bopd per well = 21p a share
Worst case 25 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 100 bopd per well = 7.7p a share


Obviously those are just rough and ready bag of the fag packet calculations and there are other possible scenarios.......but I think it gives a good idea of where valuations can be post the flow test being carried out successfully.

I absolutely think PetroChina will farm in - they will not pay cash, they will drill x number of development wells for their farm in 50%.

At the current 5p level and with Gazelle-1 to come, and MATD having cash left over to develop Heron-1 into a producer if so needed.......its cheap if you ask me.

Apologies for any errors.....just bashing from figures around.