Tuesday, September 17, 2019 8:46:17 PM
I know mining companies are among the cheapest stocks today. But I had no idea just how cheap...
According to Bernstein Research, mining stocks today are cheaper than they've been at any time in the past century. 100 years.
Bernstein analyst Paul Gait says the mining stocks are trading at 1.4 standard deviations below their long-term cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ("CAPE") ratio.
"The only comparable period in recent history was during the height of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s," Gait says. "However, even during the dot-com bubble the valuation disconnect was not as severe as it is now."
Between 1997 and 2001, the relative CAPE valuation averaged about 0.46 times, he wrote. From 2015 to present, the average has been 0.31 times.
Mining is an awful business, but that just helps make it incredibly cheap at times like this. People get tired of losing money and give up on it. So the stocks get cheap enough to produce huge returns. I've seen it many times in the past three decades.
It is easy to figure out what you believe. The difficulty lies in determining - is what you believe the truth.
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