Velocityshares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ): The seasonal rally in UGAZ is different...

Velocityshares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ)

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researcher59

Re: kei post# 21906

Friday, 09/13/2019 1:54:51 PM

Friday, September 13, 2019 1:54:51 PM

The seasonal rally in UGAZ is different every year. 2018 was spectacular but 2015 was a complete autumn dud ..... in 2018 UGAZ rallied 373% from 9/10 to 11/14. In 2015 the best autumn rally (amidst a strong downtrend) was a mere 25% from 10/30 to 11/16. A big rally finally came from 12/16 to 12/29, a gain of 108%.

Here's the trend data since 2013 (trend or reversal is considered a move of 15% or greater).

Trend Start Price Trend End Price Gain/Loss % Days in Trend

12/31/12 28400 01/03/13 22875 -19.5% 3
01/03/13 22875 01/07/13 26875 17.5% 3
01/07/13 26875 01/09/13 21020 -21.8% 3
01/09/13 21020 01/22/13 32250 53.4% 9
01/22/13 32250 01/31/13 23450 -27.3% 8
01/31/13 23450 02/06/13 28412.5 21.2% 5
02/06/13 28412.5 02/14/13 21025 -26% 7
02/14/13 21025 03/28/13 41850 99% 30
03/28/13 41850 04/04/13 34600 -17.3% 5
04/04/13 34600 04/18/13 50812.5 46.9% 11
04/18/13 50812.5 04/26/13 39037.5 -23.2% 7
04/26/13 39037.5 05/01/13 49750 27.4% 4
05/01/13 49750 05/09/13 32500 -34.7% 7
05/09/13 32500 05/23/13 42600 31.1% 11
05/23/13 42600 06/11/13 26937.5 -36.8% 13
06/11/13 26937.5 06/19/13 32687.5 21.3% 7
06/19/13 32687.5 06/28/13 22137.5 -32.3% 8
06/28/13 22137.5 07/08/13 26612.5 20.2% 6
07/08/13 26612.5 07/15/13 22137.5 -16.8% 6
07/15/13 22137.5 07/18/13 27812.5 25.6% 4
07/18/13 27812.5 08/08/13 14987.5 -46.1% 16
08/08/13 14987.5 09/19/13 25749.88 71.8% 30
09/19/13 25749.88 09/26/13 18075 -29.8% 6
09/26/13 18075 10/16/13 24337.5 34.6% 15
10/16/13 24337.5 11/04/13 14900 -38.8% 14
11/04/13 14900 12/23/13 33125 122.3% 35
12/23/13 33125 01/03/14 25762.5 -22.2% 8
01/03/14 25762.5 01/07/14 29702.88 15.3% 3
01/07/14 29702.88 01/09/14 22075 -25.7% 3
01/09/14 22075 01/24/14 43650 97.7% 11
01/24/14 43650 01/27/14 33702.5 -22.8% 2
01/27/14 33702.5 01/29/14 53412.5 58.5% 3
01/29/14 53412.5 01/31/14 32812.5 -38.6% 3
01/31/14 32812.5 02/05/14 52100 58.8% 4
02/05/14 52100 02/10/14 29012.5 -44.3% 4
02/10/14 29012.5 02/24/14 45849.88 58% 10
02/24/14 45849.88 03/24/14 27251.25 -40.6% 21
03/24/14 27251.25 03/27/14 33350 22.4% 4
03/27/14 33350 04/01/14 27275 -18.2% 4
04/01/14 27275 04/30/14 38849.88 42.4% 21
04/30/14 38849.88 05/15/14 27125 -30.2% 12
05/15/14 27125 06/16/14 35887.5 32.3% 22
06/16/14 35887.5 07/29/14 16762.5 -53.3% 31
07/29/14 16762.5 08/12/14 20537.5 22.5% 11
08/12/14 20537.5 08/15/14 16950 -17.5% 4
08/15/14 16950 08/29/14 20962.5 23.7% 11
08/29/14 20962.5 09/05/14 16543.75 -21.1% 5
09/05/14 16543.75 09/09/14 19512.5 17.9% 3
09/09/14 19512.5 09/12/14 16562.5 -15.1% 4
09/12/14 16562.5 09/17/14 19912.5 20.2% 4
09/17/14 19912.5 09/24/14 16687.5 -16.2% 6
09/24/14 16687.5 09/29/14 20761.25 24.4% 4
09/29/14 20761.25 10/27/14 12525 -39.7% 21
10/27/14 12525 11/07/14 23437.5 87.1% 10
11/07/14 23437.5 11/14/14 15787.5 -32.6% 6
11/14/14 15787.5 11/20/14 23512.5 48.9% 5
11/20/14 23512.5 11/24/14 17462.63 -25.7% 3
11/24/14 17462.63 11/26/14 21112.5 20.9% 3
11/26/14 21112.5 12/04/14 10825 -48.7% 6
12/04/14 10825 12/05/14 12475 15.2% 2
12/05/14 12475 12/08/14 10213.75 -18.1% 2
12/08/14 10213.75 12/15/14 12262.38 20.1% 6
12/15/14 12262.38 12/16/14 10150 -17.2% 2
12/16/14 10150 12/18/14 11837.5 16.6% 3
12/18/14 11837.5 12/26/14 5537.5 -53.2% 6
12/26/14 5537.5 12/29/14 6662.5 20.3% 2
12/29/14 6662.5 12/31/14 4775 -28.3% 3
12/31/14 4775 01/02/15 5781.25 21.1% 2
01/02/15 5781.25 01/07/15 4437.5 -23.2% 4
01/07/15 4437.5 01/09/15 5137.5 15.8% 3
01/09/15 5137.5 01/12/15 4175 -18.7% 2
01/12/15 4175 01/15/15 6787.38 62.6% 4
01/15/15 6787.38 01/22/15 3812.5 -43.8% 5
01/22/15 3812.5 01/23/15 4687.5 23% 2
01/23/15 4687.5 01/26/15 3975 -15.2% 2
01/26/15 3975 01/27/15 4650 17% 2
01/27/15 4650 02/02/15 3137.5 -32.5% 5
02/02/15 3137.5 02/03/15 3800 21.1% 2
02/03/15 3800 02/09/15 3000 -21.1% 5
02/09/15 3000 02/11/15 3962.5 32.1% 3
02/11/15 3962.5 02/13/15 3312.5 -16.4% 3
02/13/15 3312.5 02/20/15 4550 37.4% 5
02/20/15 4550 03/03/15 3162.5 -30.5% 8
03/03/15 3162.5 03/06/15 3887.5 22.9% 4
03/06/15 3887.5 03/09/15 3112.5 -19.9% 2
03/09/15 3112.5 03/12/15 3787.5 21.7% 4
03/12/15 3787.5 03/16/15 3112.5 -17.8% 3
03/16/15 3112.5 03/18/15 3962.5 27.3% 3
03/18/15 3962.5 04/01/15 2650 -33.1% 11
04/01/15 2650 04/02/15 3062.5 15.6% 2
04/02/15 3062.5 04/13/15 2312.5 -24.5% 7
04/13/15 2312.5 04/16/15 2900 25.4% 4
04/16/15 2900 04/27/15 2175 -25% 8
04/27/15 2175 05/19/15 4062.5 86.8% 17
05/19/15 4062.5 06/04/15 2162.5 -46.8% 12
06/04/15 2162.5 06/11/15 3087.5 42.8% 6
06/11/15 3087.5 06/12/15 2587.5 -16.2% 2
06/12/15 2587.5 06/17/15 3162.5 22.2% 4
06/17/15 3162.5 06/23/15 2450 -22.5% 5
06/23/15 2450 07/02/15 2837.5 15.8% 8
07/02/15 2837.5 07/09/15 2187.5 -22.9% 5
07/09/15 2187.5 07/23/15 2987.5 36.6% 11
07/23/15 2987.5 07/31/15 2275 -23.8% 7
07/31/15 2275 08/12/15 2875 26.4% 9
08/12/15 2875 10/02/15 1382.5 -51.9% 37
10/02/15 1382.5 10/15/15 1629.97 17.9% 10
10/15/15 1629.97 10/30/15 812.5 -50.2% 12
10/30/15 812.5 11/06/15 1012.5 24.6% 6
11/06/15 1012.5 11/12/15 847.5 -16.3% 5
11/12/15 847.5 11/16/15 1005 18.6% 3
11/16/15 1005 12/16/15 322.5 -67.9% 22
12/16/15 322.5 12/29/15 670 107.8% 9
12/29/15 670 12/30/15 507.5 -24.3% 2
12/30/15 507.5 12/31/15 645 27.1% 2
12/31/15 645 01/06/16 542.5 -15.9% 4
01/06/16 542.5 01/08/16 740 36.4% 3
01/08/16 740 01/20/16 412.5 -44.3% 8
01/20/16 412.5 01/29/16 562.5 36.4% 8
01/29/16 562.5 02/02/16 337.5 -40% 3
02/02/16 337.5 02/03/16 390 15.6% 2
02/03/16 390 02/04/16 327.5 -16% 2
02/04/16 327.5 02/08/16 440 34.4% 3
02/08/16 440 03/03/16 167.5 -61.9% 18
03/03/16 167.5 03/17/16 270.1 61.3% 11
03/17/16 270.1 03/23/16 204.8 -24.2% 5
03/23/16 204.8 04/04/16 282.7 38% 8
04/04/16 282.7 04/06/16 218 -22.9% 3
04/06/16 218 04/07/16 261.3 19.9% 2
04/07/16 261.3 04/11/16 219.3 -16.1% 3
04/11/16 219.3 04/13/16 264.4 20.6% 3
04/13/16 264.4 04/18/16 217.7 -17.7% 4
04/18/16 217.7 04/22/16 319.7 46.9% 5
04/22/16 319.7 04/28/16 235.57 -26.3% 5
04/28/16 235.57 04/29/16 280.1 18.9% 2
04/29/16 280.1 05/02/16 218.4 -22% 2
05/02/16 218.4 05/12/16 268 22.7% 9
05/12/16 268 05/19/16 200 -25.4% 6
05/19/16 200 05/23/16 248.4 24.2% 3
05/23/16 248.4 05/26/16 205.5 -17.3% 4
05/26/16 205.5 06/21/16 421 104.9% 18
06/21/16 421 06/23/16 352.1 -16.4% 3
06/23/16 352.1 07/01/16 501.83 42.5% 7
07/01/16 501.83 07/21/16 328.9 -34.5% 14
07/21/16 328.9 07/29/16 448.4 36.3% 7
07/29/16 448.4 08/02/16 367 -18.2% 3
08/02/16 367 08/04/16 434 18.3% 3
08/04/16 434 08/11/16 292.8 -32.5% 6
08/11/16 292.8 08/26/16 427.5 46% 12
08/26/16 427.5 09/07/16 313.5 -26.7% 8
09/07/16 313.5 09/22/16 464.6 48.2% 12
09/22/16 464.6 10/03/16 349.1 -24.9% 8
10/03/16 349.1 10/13/16 548.9 57.2% 9
10/13/16 548.9 10/26/16 315.6 -42.5% 10
10/26/16 315.6 10/31/16 377.3 19.6% 4
10/31/16 377.3 11/09/16 196.4 -47.9% 8
11/09/16 196.4 12/09/16 496.8 153% 22
12/09/16 496.8 12/20/16 323.3 -34.9% 8
12/20/16 323.3 12/28/16 524.9 62.4% 6
12/28/16 524.9 01/05/17 267.9 -49% 6
01/05/17 267.9 01/06/17 312 16.5% 2
01/06/17 312 01/09/17 248 -20.5% 2
01/09/17 248 01/12/17 330 33.1% 4
01/12/17 330 01/20/17 267.8 -18.8% 6
01/20/17 267.8 01/26/17 345.8 29.1% 5
01/26/17 345.8 02/06/17 221.5 -35.9% 8
02/06/17 221.5 02/09/17 256.5 15.8% 4
02/09/17 256.5 02/27/17 136.6 -46.7% 12
02/27/17 136.6 03/13/17 198.6 45.4% 11
03/13/17 198.6 03/16/17 167.2 -15.8% 4
03/16/17 167.2 04/06/17 235.3 40.7% 16
04/06/17 235.3 04/25/17 179.5 -23.7% 13
04/25/17 179.5 05/12/17 230.5 28.4% 14
05/12/17 230.5 05/18/17 184.2 -20.1% 5
05/18/17 184.2 05/22/17 213.7 16% 3
05/22/17 213.7 06/22/17 118.8 -44.4% 23
06/22/17 118.8 06/29/17 151 27.1% 6
06/29/17 151 07/05/17 112 -25.8% 4
07/05/17 112 07/20/17 146 30.4% 12
07/20/17 146 08/01/17 102.2 -30% 9
08/01/17 102.2 09/01/17 135.3 32.4% 24
09/01/17 135.3 09/08/17 110 -18.7% 5
09/08/17 110 09/18/17 140 27.3% 7
09/18/17 140 10/09/17 94.9 -32.2% 16
10/09/17 94.9 10/13/17 112.6 18.7% 5
10/13/17 112.6 10/19/17 95.4 -15.3% 5
10/19/17 95.4 10/23/17 111.1 16.5% 3
10/23/17 111.1 11/01/17 80.8 -27.3% 8
11/01/17 80.8 11/13/17 114.9 42.2% 9
11/13/17 114.9 11/24/17 76 -33.9% 9
11/24/17 76 11/29/17 101.4 33.4% 4
11/29/17 101.4 12/15/17 51.3 -49.4% 13
12/15/17 51.3 12/18/17 62.5 21.8% 2
12/18/17 62.5 12/21/17 49.72 -20.4% 4
12/21/17 49.72 01/02/18 81.44 63.8% 7
01/02/18 81.44 01/05/18 59.31 -27.2% 4
01/05/18 59.31 01/30/18 105.66 78.1% 17
01/30/18 105.66 02/12/18 50.81 -51.9% 10
02/12/18 50.81 03/12/18 64.41 26.8% 20
03/12/18 64.41 03/23/18 51.59 -19.9% 10
03/23/18 51.59 06/15/18 71.8 39.2% 59
06/15/18 71.8 07/19/18 50.78 -29.3% 24
07/19/18 50.78 08/14/18 69.49 36.8% 19
08/14/18 69.49 09/10/18 54.6 -21.4% 19
09/10/18 54.6 10/10/18 96.89 77.5% 23
10/10/18 96.89 10/12/18 81.06 -16.3% 3
10/12/18 81.06 10/17/18 95.45 17.8% 4
10/17/18 95.45 10/29/18 74.93 -21.5% 9
10/29/18 74.93 11/14/18 260.23 247.3% 13
11/14/18 260.23 11/15/18 105.1 -59.6% 2
11/15/18 105.1 11/19/18 193.99 84.6% 3
11/19/18 193.99 11/20/18 132.06 -31.9% 2
11/20/18 132.06 11/21/18 187.77 42.2% 2
11/21/18 187.77 11/26/18 122.59 -34.7% 3
11/26/18 122.59 11/28/18 179.98 46.8% 3
11/28/18 179.98 12/03/18 128.07 -28.8% 4
12/03/18 128.07 12/04/18 158.72 23.9% 2
12/04/18 158.72 12/06/18 130.88 -17.5% 2
12/06/18 130.88 12/10/18 167.82 28.2% 3
12/10/18 167.82 12/17/18 70.1 -58.2% 6
12/17/18 70.1 12/18/18 89.89 28.2% 2
12/18/18 89.89 12/19/18 70.36 -21.7% 2
12/19/18 70.36 12/20/18 90.12 28.1% 2
12/20/18 90.12 12/26/18 60.03 -33.4% 4
12/26/18 60.03 12/27/18 72.83 21.3% 2
12/27/18 72.83 01/03/19 36.61 -49.7% 5
01/03/19 36.61 01/16/19 65.44 78.7% 10
01/16/19 65.44 01/23/19 40.6 -38% 5
01/23/19 40.6 01/25/19 48.99 20.7% 3
01/25/19 48.99 02/07/19 26.85 -45.2% 10
02/07/19 26.85 03/05/19 37.45 39.5% 18
03/05/19 37.45 04/25/19 21.92 -41.5% 37
04/25/19 21.92 05/20/19 27.7 26.4% 18
05/20/19 27.7 06/20/19 12.97 -53.2% 23
06/20/19 12.97 06/28/19 17.48 34.8% 7
06/28/19 17.48 07/01/19 14.4 -17.6% 2
07/01/19 14.4 07/10/19 20.14 39.9% 7
07/10/19 20.14 07/29/19 12.14 -39.7% 14
07/29/19 12.14 08/01/19 16.01 31.9% 4
08/01/19 16.01 08/05/19 11 -31.3% 3
08/05/19 11 08/15/19 14.66 33.3% 9
08/15/19 14.66 08/23/19 12.18 -16.9% 7
08/23/19 12.18 09/10/19 21.94 80.1% 12