Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[Fosco1]

The big "OR"
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I have considered Cel SCI survival data. They have hired a professional team to extract it. I believe they have used same or almost same assumptions as I did on inclusion criteria, population and year of treatment.

Like I stated it is a bit different from my own SEER extract that I published in Seeking alpha article, simply because I took the most conservative survival (Stage III), like I explained in the text.

Otherwise it matches pretty well my blend of ST III + ST IVa stats as per my XL spreadsheet, there is more prevalence of STIVa (more than 2x more patients) so that takes the survival down.

The reason I have not considered these figures is because they are way too bad and would show excessive success of the CT ! I preferred to be conservative to show that success is highly likely.

The other reason is that, like Lightrock, I am a bit annoyed with such survival numbers as this implies dropouts numbers

This implies

1) A huge efficacy

OR

2) A really unbelievable number of dropout and no efficacy

OR

3) Still a huge number of dropouts and a reasonable efficacy

That's the big OR

Basically what is says is :

Let's assume 298th event happens by Dec 2019 (very reasonable assumptions)

1) A huge efficacy shown at primary endpoint: we would have 15.6% of dropouts and a survival improvement of 85% in Multikine arm VS control (206 events VS 92 events)

OR

2) A really unbelievable number of dropout and no efficacy : More than 40% of dropouts and less than 5% survival improvement in Multikine arm VS control


OR

3) Less than 36% of dropouts and still 15% survival improvement in Multikine arm VS control

Most conservatively, we can respect SEER data, but we could also imagine like a poster mentioned, SEER represent averages and the study population gets a better treatment than the average population, so SOC survival might be better than this one. Then the figures will show more reasonable outcomes.

In any case it is not realistic to find so many dropouts, the data we got from a clinical site in Sri Lanka implied around 11%, not 35%, therefore there is so much room for optimism that my mind cannot grasp it at this time.

In french "OR" means gold, and behind this "OR" lies whether we are golden or poor fools