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Re: frontloading post# 12725

Tuesday, 09/10/2019 7:11:51 PM

Tuesday, September 10, 2019 7:11:51 PM

Post# of 23479
I mean.. how often have you exerted at max capacity the first time you did something massive?

Let's say they hit 50%, or even 25% of what's projected (which was 4 cycles, 120k Lbs, $1196 avg per pound).

100% Scenario: 120,000 lbs x $1196/lb = $143M
50% Scenario: 60,000 lbs x 1196/lb = $71M
25% Scenario: 30,000 lbs x 1196/lb = $35M
10% Scenario: 12,000 lbs x 1196/lb = $14M

And that's year 1. Since fiscal year ends 3/31, let's assume worst case scenario is 2 crops per year. That means we assume they only realize one crop of 30,000 Lbs before the fiscal year ends.

This means their Annual report will show roughly $35M more gross revenue for the 2019 fiscal year. Then in 2020, assuming worst case scenario is only 2 cycles, that number jumps to roughly $70M gross revenue in 2020 assuming many things remain the same (which is a poor assumption obviously, but for calculations sake let's roll with it).

I think they'll still grab a decent slice of the pie, especially if people bought around the early dozens of cents range.