Antares Pharma, Inc. (ATRS)

[hyperopia]

Another article by SoS - Sales Projections for Xyosted

Antares: Update on Sales Projections for Xyosted (ATRS, $3.30, Buy)
https://smithonstocks.com/2555-2/


A model is only as good as its assumptions. At least Larry Smith admits that his model has some flaws, (as most of ours do) and his numbers are not set in stone, and I appreciate that, but I still think he’s being too conservative. I know it’s still very early in the launch and it’s difficult to project sales at this point, but simply following the current trend line, the sales in Q3 should be around $7.5M and about $10.5 in Q4. That would put annual sales closer to $23M instead of the $18.8M that he estimates. Going forward, I would expect sales to accelerate once insurance coverage increases, and physicians become more familiar with Xyosted, so next year’s sales should certainly be higher than the $54M his model shows. Even if it only follows the current trend, it should still be over $70M.

ou71764, I agree that his analysis is decent, but he remains far too conservative. I guess it’s just the way the game is played. Analysts mostly rely on the company for “guidance” and the company gives conservative guidance to ensure that they can meet or beat the Street’s expectations. Antares’ management guided revenues this year around 95M-105M, and all of the analysts projections were within that range. (okay maybe one was 89M?) This month, the company raised their guidance range by 5M and all of the analysts (like sheep) raised their projections within this range once again. I think we can see with the way Xyosted sales are headed, and the way that the full Epipen launch is beginning to take off, that management is going to raise their “guidance” once again next quarter.
(BTW - I posted here six months ago that management was being too conservative, and my model predicted ~120M for the year, which should actually be pretty close)

In the bigger picture, I think you’re right, and I’ve been saying the same thing . . . patience is required, but it will be rewarded, and possibly fairly soon. I think we’ve been seeing some big funds slowly repositioning themselves over the past few months when they realized that the Xyosted launch was actually going to be successful, and Antares wasn’t going to run out of cash. I know some people are talking profitability soon, but I’m simply expecting cash flow positive, with some increased spending going to R&D in the new facility.