SIL Miners ETF (SIL)

[tootalljones]

Last post today, promise: if you follow the work of Adam Hamilton, at Zeal, LLC, which I have on and off for almost 20 years, he has shown very clearly what happens at the early stages of a genuine PM gold bull market, which is marked, or was marked with the one that went from 2002 to 2011 when it peaked.

He documents, endlesslly in fact, that the bull in the miners is marked by a series of huge runs higher, and then significant retracements.
In fact, in the last one, I think that Bull had perhaps 8 to 10 such huge moves, lasting anywhere from 3 months to about a year. Anyway, the early ones were the most powerful, with the the gains in the funds, gdx and gdxj, which he uses as proxys, being up there around 150 percent, before the retracement.

of Course, as that bull aged over time, the moves were even higher in actual or nominal terms, but the percentage moves, were less and increasingly less.

This pattern is only logical, as when a bull market errupts, it tends to be very very powerful in raw percentage terms. What this means is that this move in Silver stocks, is fairly early in this first breakout move, perhaps now being up only around 25 to 35 percent, depending on where you consider the base was.