I actually wrote the CEO Arthur Sams today and got a response. I agreed with you in that Tier 1 U.S. telecom is essential at this point and wanted some clarification. I asked:
"Do you think you can capture more of the U.S. Tier 1 market share in 2020? I know you can't give specifics and you probably won't even know for sure until deals are done, but in general have indications been made that these companies are pleased with what you have done with your production capacity and are hopeful to get more of your product going forward?"
I actually had never emailed him before. I got his address from an SEC filing.
He responded. Here is what he said:
"Thanks for your letter.
I have a few features on product upgrades we are engineering; I feel the new feature developments will get them excited.
We still need to work on lowering cost and shorter delivery. I am close to reaching my objectives here.
We will also have to increase our engineering sales support.
Answer is yes."
Also, on your question on short term orders for Q3.....I don't know. I did see in 10Q where close to 15% of orders in Q2 were not from AT&T and T-mobile. That was approx $1.3M. As such there are other things happening at some level. I think the concern with Q3 may be a bit of an over reaction. In the 10Q it shows they do have enough finished inventory to ship if orders do come.
Part of me is wondering how much downside is there at this stock price level? I don't think it's much. The company isn't burning cash or anything, just dealing with delays, but the long term seems solid. I've been giving thought to averaging my share price down quite a bit. Not to double up for the long-term, but more to get my cost basis down to unload if I want to. I say that because in the next few months they will definitely pr new products (software application in Sept probably, Lithium Battery systems, NG generators), international orders (hopefully), and some levels of orders from U.S. tier companies at some $ amount--most likely at 2018 levels at least and hopefully more. The odds are some of these will hit before Q3 results in 3 months. This is a low float stock that could easily bump up to $4.40 or so. I was thinking maybe I'd just just lower my cost basis, just waiting for a bump and sell out and not even deal with Q3 or Q4.
