Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[ValueInvestor01]

There should be valid arguments that the value is substantially below 340musd. The fact that they organized it in a separate company is not proof that the value is 340musd as far as everything is tightly connected to the SIAF crew.

This is a subjective topic, because there is also a valid argument why it should be higher.

In fact Tri-way has such a terrible management that the way they messed up the dividend distribution was enough to get SIAF (mother company) kicked out of Merkur.

They have failed a PRE-IPO, they do not achieve any financing from banks (equity, bonds and traditional loans). How hard is it to get HK-financing from a gold mine 30 minutes away from Hong-kong??

Behind Tri-way are the same people who has failed in selling anything close to booked value for the last 8-10 years.

Mispriced assets will mostly be found where there is a problem about the company or its management, where everything seems it could not get any worse and the expectations are on its lowest point. It is highly unlikely you would find a great bargain where the Company or the managements are doing great, but it is still possible especially if it is technical ones (ex: lawsuit, delisting or "Special Situations" as we have talked about previously).

why is it different this time?

Whether it would be different this time or not is not the most important question but rather whether the current price is justifiable.

Howard Marks best described this:

What needs to be remembered is the defining role of price. Regardless of whether the fundamental outlook is negative or positive, the level of investment risk is determined largely by the relationship between the price of an asset and its intrinsic value. Although counterintuitive, there is no asset so good that it can’t become overpriced and thus risky, and few so bad that there’s no price at which they are a safe buy. Only those who can see this logic can hope to become superior investors.

This means that even a company with the worst management has a price where it is attractive.