Insmed Inc (INSM)

[read_this_n0w]

very much correct, only injunction could hurt INSM, but thats not on the table..
and chanced higher than 50/50 for INSM.. even 90/10 on appeal
but due to summary judgement still some chances that the jury might award one or two of the TRCA claims...

still could be toppled by the hearing on wednesday on inequitable conduct,so all well there


and your analysis that even a relative high royalty would be good for INSM ->correct

(not even going to mentioned MMD/NOONAN/severe burn/HARS all major indications compared to INSM market..
do not forget its a 30.000$+ per year drug for its primary indication)

its still about who gets the primary market:
once daily needle vs twice daily
proven safe vs likely mostly safe


The additional cost a royalty would bring are easily offset, due to oprhan drug designation, insurers reimbursements are close to mandatory for the insurers.

So next week big chances for a true INSM victory, but even when not it still is positve for INSM since they are likely to win the primary market (200 subscriptions in 3 months vs 277 subscriptions in 9 months(with a 6month headstart))

Next hurdle:
NEw phase II results early next year..all likley to be positive due to the nature of IPLEX, it induces bone/muscle growth...so MMD/Noona/HARS are highly likley to have a positive effect there... and iplex allready is proven safe in children and those indications are orphan designated as well (great market protection AND strict rules for insurerers on reimbursements!)

other hurdle: first halve 2007 INSM will need cash..
a)possibility: dilution... at current levels?
unlikley due to outlook on the phase II results known by than, so market potential for iplex will be a lot more accurate to predict.. and as stated those are likley to show beneficial results..

b)OWh..i did leave something out.. EU approval: this is pending, where INSM seems to have a 4-6 month lead on TRCA..
cash could also come from a european partner paying an upfront fee and subsequent royalties. This is the most likely scenario for me.. i expect this after all phaseII results are in and appreciated in the pps)

Ok folk, my two cents for the day
INSM below 2$ still damn cheap

take some of the patient populations (check the presentation files and slides as well on http://www.xs4all.nl/~surg3on )

and make a few calculations based on 30.000$ per year drug costs for the patient.. where MMD/Noonan/HARS might even need a higher dose, but lets presume they need similar dosing..and that cost will be 30.000 per year for those patients..and take a market penetration in those patients of a very conservative 25%

;o)

enjoy your calculating (numbers look damn nice)