Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

Lets do the comparison one more time using my model for SIAF and HERB. Suffice to say that no other company can come close to these when value is concerned.

I'm going to give SIAF the benefit of the doubt for growth. Or TRW. Because I believe that TRW will grow fast either way. With or without Solomon. With or without big financing. The only question is, how fast.

What has changed for SIAF this past year is the score for adaptability. It has come down substantially. No explanation is needed I think.

So here we go.

 
                            SIAF    HERB 
  
 Valuation (4x)             12.3    16.6 
 Growth (6x)                 9       7.5 
 Risk (4x)                   7       7 
 Adaptability (4x)           7.5     7 
 Priority (2x)               7.5     7 
 Reliability (2x)            7.5     7.5 
  
 Average score (/22)         8.68    8.93

They are closer than I thought. But the difference is still significant.

I can calculate "fair value" by changing the share price until the average score drops to 7.5.

And then we get

$8.50 for SIAF (= 50 x undervalued)
$2.60 for HERB (= 113x undervalued)

There is more value for SIAF if they get $100M+ to build ODRAS farms. And there is more value for HERB if they go private or merge. But this is roughly how they relate.

SIAF at $0.12 and HERB at $0.04 and they are equally valued. We were there 2 days ago.

Now the million $ question, who will deliver first? The stock dividend from SIAF or a buyout/merger announcement from HERB?