CV Sciences Inc (CVSI)

[super_trades]

>Potential legit reasons for CVSI shares getting crushed (and overdone ) :

Northland remained a Buy rating on CVSI but lowered their target from $8 to $6

In March it was $8 link - > https://www.analystratings.com/articles/northland-securities-sticks-to-its-buy-rating-for-cv-sciences-inc-cvsi/

Now in August it is $6 link - > https://www.smarteranalyst.com/new-blurbs/analysts-offer-insights-on-services-companies-cv-sciences-inc-othercvsi-vonage-holdings-vg-and-sailpoint-technologies-holdings-inc-sail/

Refresh my memory did the FD shares go up for the Mona package before the Q1 report or after? The lowered target could also partially reflect increased FD shares if so. Wasn't it 15-20m shares? I don't recall and too tired to look up right now.

So the lowered price target could have caused panic , and longs could have thrown in the towel and shorts may have gotten very aggressive. But please let's stop the fanatical short conspiracy theories beyond that or OTCBB issues. A better question why does Northland now think $6 or $720 million dollar market cap is fair value ( FD 120m shares ) ? CW analysts all have targets of approximately $2 billion market cap or more and CW does approximately 50% more in sales than CV.

However #2 is this Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2019 was $3.6 million or 21.1% of net revenue, compared to $3.8 million or 31.1% of net revenue, in the second quarter of 2018. CW does 30-35% adjusted EBITDA %. CV dipped to 21% this quarter. Albeit I agree with many investment in R&D as well as sales and marketing at this stage of the product cycle should be viewed as a positive investment. CV management should have done a MUCH better job addressing this on the call. Additionally they could have talked about plans to drive internet sales higher. I was not super impressed with the CEO or CFO as far as aggressive confidence in building out a global top CPG brand to be honest, meaning they could have been more aggressive and covered these important topics in more detail as well.

I think there is BIG value in the CV brand as the #2 in TOTAL sales. SPINS data is a solid/awesome data point but it doesn't make them #1 in total sales and they should be working to advance other sales channels higher.

I think big weed companies and even CPG companies are going to smell blood in the water and what better way to get an instant foothold in the top CBD market in the world than acquire the #2 brand in total sales and #1 in SPINS data?

Why do analysts think this is only worth $720 million ? Some of the above factors? I think personally a buyout would be an all stock deal for $700m - $1 billion. Why would CV take that ? Did you hear how many times they mentioned increased competition ? CW never mentions that or has seemed worried in the least about that. They need a bigger management team with either deeper pockets or massive CPG experience to take CV to the next level imo. Also, at some point if they are truly going to develop the anti - tobacco drug they WILL need cash. Honestly, I think they will need more cash just to grow out the CBD brand to compete globally with CW and others. So I think CV WOULD take an offer of $6-$10 if they were approached which is just my thesis. Another idea would be for CV to merge with ELLXF and get instant global footprint and 25% of Pet Releaf one of the top pet CBD brands.

In conclusion, the stock is WAY oversold imo and if there are shorts overstaying their welcome a big news release could cause a nice squeeze.