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Re: None

Friday, 08/09/2019 9:08:13 AM

Friday, August 09, 2019 9:08:13 AM

Post# of 39186
The biggest piece here is understanding where the short term and long term value propositions are. In the short run we have core UCPA + LPI contracts which will absolutely start coming don't forget the network is doing 16bn USD annually right now and just launched their APAC division in June. Second there is a terminal value that should be assigned to the 5% stake in LPI. Terminal value here has a very wide range as this piece is the most unknown we have. This could be future div streams from LPI to their subsidiaries. It could be a private equity shop partially buys out / invests in LPI and acquires 30% of the umbrella company - this cash will then be owned by the agencies pro rata to their ownership stake (we own 5%) to fund an aggressive growth strategy. It could also be LPI looks to list on a major exchange in 5 years or so and then forget .10 UCPA value we're talking .80+ and no I'm not joking. The typical market multiple for this industry range anywhere from .7x rev - 2x rev. A 16bn network at a 1x multiple is 16bn market cap * .05 is 800m market value added to UCPA as we own 5% of the LPI structure. Again this is a far out terminal value that should be discounted given uncertainty and timing of cash flows but it exists in our relationship. So again we have core ucpa + future LPI revenues and client pipelines + terminal value associated with the broader LPI asset / 5% stake. That all combined on a discounted basis is worth so much more than our current 12m market cap. So long as we have no dilution it is a matter of when not if this blows up past .10 and if LPI indicated an IPO or dividend streams are coming forget .10 we're going to the .20s. I speak facts. I am very versed in valuation strats, private valuation, acquisition strategy and I have never seen somethign with such untapped power and value as UCPA. There's a reason the insiders have acquired such an immense stake in this one. Ain't going no where.