Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[Mogles]

Still lots of risk here. This is CVM and junior biotech after all. They can pull bad news out of their ass anywhere anytime. Arbitration outcome as an example, they lose even when they win. I’m optimistic as well that P3 results are shaping up to show a substantial patient benefit. Your models are getting more and more convincing. I have been long for years hoping this might be a holy grail of cancer treatment.

My main concern, and what prevents me from doubling my position, is that even with a successful P3 trial, something was missed or an error in process occurred in the trial that may question the validity of successful results. This is possible given the length of trial, the initial CRO fiasco, the scope of the trial across numerous countries, the FDA clinical hold and CVM attempting to make changes mid course, and managements lack of experience in getting new drugs approved. I’m not predicting a trial issue but it’s a legitimate risk of how MK could be derailed despite meeting primary outcome. Still a compelling risk/reward play. Might be why their market cap is consistently below peers at similar stages of development and where longs think it should be given the market potential of MK..