Hey CN, I guess you are still around. I’m also hopeful the 2nd quarter numbers will look good. Analysts are projecting anywhere from $20M - $24M, with consensus around $21M, and even Mr. bullish but conservative, SoS is estimating $20.5. So why do you think analyst’s estimates are so low? I guess they expect lower earnings due to Makena? If that’s true, I’m not really sure why because on the 1st quarter conference call in May, Antares management said that their device shipments for Makena were still solid, and at an investor conference in June, AMAG shared that Makena SC market share was increasing, and reaffirmed that sales are still on target. And yes, Makena IM is taking a big hit due to generic competition and supply issues, but I don’t think SC is having this problem. AMAG reports next week, and it should be quite interesting.
Anyway for Q2, my model estimates a slight growth in Makena sales, as well as very solid growth in both Xyo, and gen Epi, for a total of $27.4M. I actually think this estimate could even be a little low due to the inventory builds for the full launch of Epi and pre-launch of generic Forteo, but If I’m even close to correct, then we might see some more short-term buying pressure. I don’t expect management to raise their guidance until the 3rd quarter call in November, so the sheepish analysts probably won’t make their upward revisions until then, which is why I think the buying pressure will be short-lived. We may have to deal with the market games for a little while longer.
But I’d agree that ATRS is mostly de-risked except for Makena, which still has a (small) chance of being withdrawn from the market. Going forward though, by next year, it would have a much less significant impact when Xyo, Epi, and then Forteo take off.
BTW - You still in CYRX?
