I think that I am a somewhat different kind of IPIX-long. I have a level of confidence in Leo that probably is not shared by many other shareholders.
Leo, I believe, is trying to balance the short term interest of shareholders, some of whom identify themselves as longs, against the execution of his long-term strategy for the development of IPIX's pipeline.
IPIX share price is the primary short term concern and it seems likely to have figured into the timing of Leo's release of the licensing PR at 8:30 AM (EST), on Monday morning, July 22, 2019. Additionally, Leo's purchase of the BAYSTREET advertising article, IMO, was also indicative of his concern for IPIX"s very-low share price and was an attempt to try and increase it.
Obviously, IF Leo received a significant initial payment then that would, IMO, send IPIX's share price soaring, but, as every shareholder seems to know, Leo has yet to disclose the amount of the initial payment.
Irrespective of the amount of the initial payment, Whatever leeway Leo has in terms of the timing of the release of this information, he will, IMO, give precedence to his long term strategy over short term interests and release the information accordingly.
Alphasigma, a "global pharmaceutical company with proven IBD expertise", and whose CEO expressed a 'high interest' in IPIX's development of oral Brilacidin for treatment of UC and CD, despite all of this, did not acquire the Right of First Negotiation (RFN) for IPIX's two most valueable IBD indications.
This suggest to me that, given Alphasigma's superior financial bargaining position, Alphasigma could not acquire the RFN for UC and CD because IPIX is already or preparing to enter negotiations with others for these indications and that between the Right of First Negotiation and the Right of First Refusal (RFR), the latter was the only one available or possible. It defies logic that Alphasigma would not want RFN over RFR.
Of course, it is also possible that Leo isn't in negotiations with anyone for UC and/or CD and he was just savvy enough to not limit his negotiating options for IPIX's two most valueable IBD indications. After all, from IPIX's bargaining position point-of-view, the RFR benefits IPIX more than Alphasigma and the other party and is more desireable than the RFN.
This brings me to the non-disclosure of the initial payment (IP). No matter whether the IP is small, medium or large, Leo is in the best position to determine what the effects of it's immediate disclosure would have on his long term strategy. That is, actual or potential negotiations. IPIX needs cash and the milestone payments won't be coming in for a while, if ever, so I'm inclined to think that the initial payment is substantial ($10M-$20M). Whatever the amount, the initial payment essentially represents IPIX's financial condition and Leo might not want negotiating adversaries to know what our financial condition is.
Ignorance of IPIX"s financial condition equates to ignorance of IPIX's full range of financial options and hinders the ability of a negotiating adversary to gauge the credibility of a potential threat by Leo to "go it alone", for example.
Alphasigma's RFR for UC and CD are much more favorable to IPIX and the creation of competition for these indications than if Alphasigma had obtained the RFN. The non-disclosure of the initial payment, I believe, aids Leo's long term strategy involving negotiations, despite the probability that its immediate release would have an upward effect on IPIX's share price.
I say that I am a different kind of long because I have great confidence that if Leo could release the amount of the initial payment, without the possible negative effects on what I perceive his long term strategy to be, he would do so. As a long, the share price I am MOST concerned about is the share price that comes from the successful commercialization of the B platform or parts thereof. I say I am a different kind of long because I am unwilling to sacrifice IPIX's long term interests for short term gains. Leo's actions and inactions leads me to believe that he thinks the same way.
