Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) - Breaking-Out »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 27, 2019

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 26, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2719245 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. This price action here in July is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 2739868 intraday and is still trading above that high of 2690737.


As of now, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Looking at our timing models, it is possible to witness a turning point come October in Dow Jones Industrials. Therefore, remember to watch for this possible development at the time. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a low at 2468057 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 2690737 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

The market is trading some 0.89% percent above the last high 2695181 from which we did originally obtain two sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 2160033 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 46 months. The previous low of 1537033 made during August 2015 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 2480951 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during October 2018 on the Monthly level at 2695181 has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

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