Unigene Laboratories Inc (fka UGNEQ)

[cfoofme]

Buy signal from RB?

By: arizona-chartman
21 Nov 2006, 03:44 PM EST
Msg. 11115 of 11115
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BUY SIGNAL FLASHED TODAY:11-21-06
I am a relatively new shareholder who has been accumulating substantial new shares over the past few days. I am a private investor who invests and trades for my own account. In addition to employing fundamental research and detailed due-diligence ... I am a technical analyst who charts channels ( and channels within channels ) that stocks run up and down within. The goal quite simply is to correctly identify channels ... so that one may buy low... near the bottom of channels ...and sell high...near the top of channels.

Although UGNE is in an eleven month downtrend from the highs around $4.60 in DEC/05...it is still within a four year up-channel moving upward at a 33% to 45% upward angle. Please note the following:
1. the bottom channel-line of the upward moving channel is approx $2.00 and the top channel-line is approx $5.00
2. This cahnnel is moving upward and 3 to 6 months from now the bottom of the channel will be approx$2.50 and the top $5.50. In ayear the bottom channel-line would be aroun $4.00 and the top around $7.00
3. When the stock recently spiked up to $2.98 3-4 weeks ago ... it clearly broke a sharp 5 month downtrend line within the larger channel. Classically the stock should then spike down(after the initial breakthru)to the top of that downtrend line ( which is now support ...instead of resistance).Ugne has now done that at $2.05 to $2.20 ... which also coincides with the bottom of the 4 year up-channel at approx $2.00
4. This is a classical technical buy-point. UGNE's next channel move should be a relatively sharp uptrend to the 200 day moving average (200dma) currently at $2.99 ... once it closes above the 200dma it should move upward to the top of the one-year downtrend line (currently around $3.40) Once it clears this it shold move quickly to close a huge 10 cent gap to the upside at $3.70...which was created when the stock gapped down in the summer. Gaps are always filled and usually within 3 to 6 months.
Conclusion: I believe in the fundamentals of UGNE. By combining channel analysis with the fundamental analysis ...we have the opportunity of buying (something that we fundamentally like and believe in ...such as UGNE)...closer to bottom points ...and then selling ...closer to high points.I believe that the risk/reward equation for buying UGNE now ( between $2.00 and $2.70)is the best that it has been in over a year. The rewards at this point greatly outweigh the risks. Buy when everyone else is panicking. Sell when there is euphoria.I believe in UGNE...its view of the osteoporosis market...strong profitability from Fortical in 2007 and ...possible massive revenues and benefits from oral calcitonin and PTH in the not too distant future.
And I believe in buying low ...near the bottom of channels ... when many others are panicking. Time will tell.