Sunday, July 14, 2019 8:40:43 AM
I was simply looking at some of the statements from Tardugno that he repeatedly made in past earnings calls.
For example, here is how he explains the interim data readout OPTIMA hazard ratios on the Q4 2018 earnings call (dated 3/29/19) in response to a question by Matthew Cross of Jones Trading:
Matthew Cross
No, I think that does, appreciate that. And then, since this first interim data readout for OPTIMA is likely to be a major part of the story for 2019, could you kind of remind us of that optionality that I think you've kind of alluded to a little bit here, subsequent to this first look, and even for the second, next year before final data, in terms of what modifications you may be able to make if the lesser PFS for either arm or negatively outside of what you're anticipating, but more asking also about the potential to stop the trial earlier is a substantial enough survival benefit. I guess, this 33% specifically is shown sooner.
Michael Tardugno
Yeah. So the hazard ratio at the first interim, in order for us to be successful as 0.61. At the second interim, I believe it's 0.70. And at the third interim, that's 0.75. So if we want to talk in layman's terms, 0.75 translates to a 33% improvement, 0.70 represents a 42% improvement and 0.61 approximately 60 plus percent improvement in the way the statisticians talk about in the risk for death.
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251843-celsion-corporation-clsn-ceo-michael-tardugno-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript
The correct numbers are:
HR of 0.75 = 25% risk reduction
HR of 0.70 = 30% risk reduction
HR of 0.61 = 39% risk reduction
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