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Monday, July 01, 2019 4:50:39 PM
In full expansion to current facilities the maximum annual revenue we could produce if we were 100% utilized is $200m. The upper end of the values for CDMOs is 7 X revenue. That's a market cap of $1.4b. That's a pps of $23.
....
Let us forget the IP of PS Targeting FOR NOW in your example.
First off, Avid BOD already hinted at further expansion in the prior conference call ...which you failed to include in your calculations, along with a premium that will be given to those CDMOs that are on the SHORT list to obtain the trust in Halozyme.
So one must ask WHY would Avid hint at further expansion via buying someone out...hmm, maybe it is because they see a very good chance that they can pick up much more CDMO work from Halozyme and they will likely require it by end of this year!
So Avid CEO and BOD create a short list of CDMOs ... strategically fitting their plan, a plan where that other CDMO is NOT in Halozymes future but can be
Avid has the leverage in making a deal now and says agree to this and you get that
So $200M is the limit? Hell no, try closer to $500M
...Now imagine that other CDMO (to join Avid Bioservices) KNOWING they will also have 1st rights to start producing anti-PS...oops, I promised not to include that in the price yet : )
Keep an eye out on other CDMOs duplicating Avid manufacturing equipment so there is a very quick, seamless transition later this year
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