Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[ano]

Updated Conclusion:
1) so without being optimistic, we can figure the stock doubled from 2007, that would mean $55.- for 2007 would now be $110.- and if the warrant is legal, common stock would be trading again for $ 22.11 (110*0.21)
2) the eps in 2007 were $1.90 so now it would be $3.80, say times 18 P/E, they now would be trading for $68.40
3) if the warrant or NWS is illegal the current EPS of $0.57 changes to $13.29 times say 18 P/E is $239.29
4) in 2007 the portfolio was 2.8T now it is 3.2T that is 14.2% more so the EPS of $1.90 is also 14.2% more, times say P/E 18 is $39.05
5) in 2012 the gfee changed from 29.9 basis point to 47.4 basis point in 2013, this change produced an income of 21.3B so if a change of 17.5 basis point produces per basis point 1.2B in income, if the income in 2007 was 10B and the Gfee 23.7, now in 2018 with a gfee of 47.2 basis point the income would be 38.2B ,the dividend was $1.90 with 10B income, it would now be $7.25 times say 18 times P/E is $130.50
6) In 2004 the EPS were $4.94 on 2.3T guarantee book, now it is 3.4T so the EPS would be $7.26 times say 18 times P/E is $130.68
7) Moelis sees a 2021 share value of $14.19 (with 100B) and $17.75 (with 125B) and the NWS/warrant legal, if the NWS turn out to be illegal the difference between 14.19 and 17.75 is 3.56 value change on 25B. times 4 is 14.24+14.19 is $28.43, the EPS in 2019 is $1.40 to $1.50 times say P/E 18 is $25.20, $27.
8) Kthomp19 post 536116 envisions 75% will go to the new holders so the share price will be $ 6.94

So we have $22.11, $68.40, $239.29, $39.05, $130.50, $130.68, $14.19, $17.75, $28.43, $25.20, $27.-, $6.94

18 P/E used from insurance industry @ pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
Moelis blueprint @ https://gsesafetyandsoundness.com/2018/11/09/oneyearlater/ page 28/29