The section on Neurotrope highlights the fact that moderate to severe AD patients are the target group:
Neurotrope, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRP) was started as Buy with a $14 price target (versus $6.36 prior close) at Janney. The firm noted that its Bryostatin could hold promise in Alzheimers Disease and noted that Neurotrope’s bryostatin-1 is currently the only candidate in clinical development for patients with moderate to severe AD.
Data from two Phase II studies and an expanded access program are said to suggest encouraging efficacy, including a statistically significant improvement in cognition in a subgroup of patients who are not taking concomitant memantine treatment. Phase II complementary data is expected to be reported in the second half of 2019 and should lead to strong stock movement if the data is positive.
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States Where Alzheimer’s Is Soaring
Janney’s Yun Zhong also noted here that even a modest penetration in the Alzheimer’s Disease market can produce a blockbuster ($1 billion in annual sales).
He said:
In a 147-patients Phase II dose finding study, statistical improvement in cognition was achieved in patients who completed the entire study (p=0.029) and the largest improvement was detected in a subgroup of patients who were not receiving concomitant memantine treatment (p=0.012). The interaction between PKC and the NMDA receptor (memantine is a NMDA receptor antagonist) may have been the reason and the ongoing confirmatory study is enrolling patients who are not taking memantine so should have an enhanced likelihood of success… We project bryostatin use only in patients with moderate to severe AD but are not taking memantine, following the patient population enrolled in the confirmatory Phase II study. We apply a 20% probability of success to the program and forecast peak U.S. market penetration to be below 10%. We reach U.S. sales of over $1.2B in 2032, which we believe should be conservative when compared to historical sales of FDA-approved therapeutics for AD.
Shares of Neurotrope were last seen up over 4% at $6.66, but investors should make note that the market cap is just $86 million. The shares also have a 52-week range of $3.33 to $11.93 to prove how volatile and speculative the company is.
Again, these are all-or-none calls. It should also be considered that even the biggest and best of pharmaceutical and biotech companies have so far failed to even break the surface in really offering a serious treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease and dementia-related disease that plague society. In short, these companies face a very uphill battle and their predecessors have so far failed to even reach a truce (let alone win).
