Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[Fosco1]

@rogue / lightrock
Regarding log curves. What is important is that they match Y3 (2016 patients) till Y8 (2011 patients), lets say Y9 if you want to extend till 2020

Take for instance UK original data for Oral Cavity

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/head-and-neck-cancers/survival#heading-Zero

it gives 3 points Y1: 78.4% Y5: 56.1% Y10: 45.2% plus a 95% confidence interval

log curve : b=-13.86 ; b=78.40 matches as : Y1:78.4 Y5 :56.1 Y10 : 46.5.

So we're pretty much at it AND, most importantly, within the confidence interval

I did the same for Taïwan with 4 points (Y1,3,5,8). For CVM I had only two points but overall we should be between confidence intervals, that's why I have chosen the log curve, it was the best match to those statistics within the Y1 till Y10 interval. Linear interpolation is wrong as it assumes a fixed number of events (not a fixed rate) while the population is decreasing, eg an increasing proportion of patient dying while in real survival analysis the proportion of patient dying is decreasing.