Any Recession will wipe 50% values, but not YSYB!
Developing countries ( favorite is China ) with predominant DOMESTIC DEMAND is our target now; until bogus potus Tariff War & circus carnival leaves town, institutes ‘Bilateral Investment Treaty’ with China again, & rotates to Recovery mode once more.
BUBBLE for desperate need of future ‘alpha’ has seen most grab higher priced ASK, with no consideration of how that HIGHER PRICE BUY will affect profits in next decade. Especially with the BEAR market Recession getting closer, & inequality spreads missing much any middle class anymore, folks are just jumping blindly for sky-high share prices in order to watch stupid hysteria tickers dance around berserk volatility. What for?
False security dictates that as long as you can SEE A TICKER DANCE, you’re aok, right? WRONG!
Buying into higher bubble prices in order to take a position for future cherry blossoms is a fairy tale that involves a BEAR’S DEN CRASH nearby with USA tickers anyway.
We’d rather focus on developing countries like CHINA with domestic demand inherent & a sure bet by most corporate investor awareness.
Of course if you have millions to invest, Yum China has 7,500 restaurants in-country with 378M O/S & a $45 Ask. The nearing BEAR could still rifle your rucksack growling “YUM IS YUMMY” when & if the next Recession hits
Far better is YSYB!
The SIX remaining YSYB Preferred share-owners are SAGE PROFESSIONAL BOSTON LONG VALUE investors with $11,639,998 worth of YSYB’s 5,413,953 preferred shares. They KNOW it’s a LONG VALUE, but expect as they all always do a TEN BAGGER from $2.15 per share; which would be a YSYB TARGET PRICE OF $20.15 per share reasonably down the road. Hell, they pray for 12% to 15% to just keep their fund-management jobs every QUARTER!
Funds can not play this extent of LONG VALUE, as their jobs are at stake every quarter to quarter with reviews.
Funds can not play penny micro-caps at all; unless it’s a large dollars investment in the $ millions for a super lucrative growth company like YSYB was & is now becoming again quickly, for sure.
(( HEDGIES ALWAYS DEMAND (AT LEAST) A TEN-BAGGER SAFETY ADVANTAGE WHEN FOREIGN MICRO BUYING. ))
$2.15 per share that was paid was most likely thought to be a targeted $20.15 per share within a few years.
THEN THE ‘Great Recession’ hit hard in 2007-2008; & surprised all with a CLIFF GRAPH of whipsawing alpha.
That’s our take, anyway. But DALIAN just saw a ( #1 NON-GMO 3600 yuan futures price, which is USD$520. ); getting closer to the fluke $680. high that YSYB saw in 2007-8. So very interesting a perspective LONG VALUE.
There is a famous quote by the 18th century banker Baron Rothschild:
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.“
Any drawdown BEAR greater than 30%, we consider as ‘Blood In The Streets’ contrarian investing we prefer.
We may indeed have a greater than 50% BEAR Recession in the coming years with so many trillions of Junk Bonds maturing soon. But who knows.... Major players are hinting at Recession possibilities more & more.
If history is any guide you should plan for four 30%+ drawdowns & two 50%+ drawdowns in equity markets over a 50 year investment life; <= if still younger yet. It will allow all of us frugal to easily compare the 1929 crash to the crashes in 1974 (peak was in 1973), 1987, 2000, & 2008 (peak was in 2007). Studying & researching further, the Great Depression & the ‘Dotcom bubble’ both didn’t see the bottom until ~ 3 years after their respective peaks, while the crash of 1987 quickly resolved itself & was above its old peak within 2 years. But severity is increasing too.
Though you might start buying when there is blood in the streets, you may soon realize that a lot of that blood is your own. YOU CAN NOT CALL THE BOTTOM, & NEITHER CAN YOU CALL THE TOP. Therefore, it’s wiser to take bottom growth companies in an expanding growth environment with developing countries as best, IMHO.
That again spells YSYB! No one will ever change our mind on the tremendous potentials & value of YSYB!!
QUOTE: “If you’re not willing to react with equanimity, ( mental calmness & even temperament ) to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get.”
End quote. ~ Sage Wisdom from Charlie Munger.
Munger and Buffett are known for buying when prices are depressed, but we still don’t advise this course of action for an average investor who needs more liquidity asap. The problem is having extra capital to buy cheaper LONG VALUE accredited investor assets like maybe we do; but many probably don’t. Your extra capital may be needed for immediate liquidity purposes during an emergency (i.e. job loss, etc, et al.), but this is something that only you would know. The brutal inequality these days that is increasing more & more forces many to speculate shorter term that causes most to bail out prematurely before any intrinsic price is reached more patiently. HANGING IN THERE MEANS HANGING IN THERE LONG VALUE.
—Just our banter of opinions is all. Thinking for yourself is far better for your own perspectives in situ.
“If you wait until you see the robin, spring will be over.” — Warren Buffett
“When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble." — Warren Buffett
BUYING DOLLAR BILLS FOR MERE PENNIES ON THE DOLLAR WORKS, LONG VALUE!
OPPORTUNITY NEVER LASTS LONG.
GLTA & GO YSYB GOGOGO!!!
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