Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[Fosco1]

Hey rogue
I guess you have answered to the wrong post, haven ‘t you ? At which point was I talking about spreadsheets ?
All I said which could be related was : “All statistical models taking into account current observed survival in the PhIII clinical trial (less than 298 events so far June 2019) show that Multikine improves survival more than 10%”
So can your model prove me wrong with given SOc and Dropouts ? May be it will give a probability of success ... well, indeed all depends on things happening like they should be likely to happen if they don t then we are screwed by the lack of luck.
This being said, i found your method as you described it extremely interesting ... and am eager to get the end result when you run it many times with various assumptions ... Could we have some surprises or just confirmations ? Now I do have a big question : what does determine “success” of the study in your method ? The fact that there are 10% more survivors in mk group at endpoint ? Well that s not success, that would just mean that at some point in time there is more survivors in mk group. I believe that Success is really determined by comparing two survival curves and both are considered different by log rank test whereas your method measures success by comparing soc vs 298-soc. That s why the basic and a bit trivial method of 10% improvement in a mk curve does insure success when endpoint is reached. Food for thoughts