Q2 estimate: COO Raj commented in cc call that March and April were running at 60-70% of capacity (with capacity being $5M/month). He interjected separately to make this point.
Figure in Q1 Jan (based on their cc call comments of it being weak and giving a rough estimate of #s) of approx $1.8M. Figure Feb moved up from there to $2.8M as things got worked out. Figure March was probably $3.1M. Add it up to give $7.7M for the quarter.
It means that Q2 "should" do at least $9.5M as the factory ramps up more. I say "should" because, imo, that's at least what they should do. However, we know how that always goes with POLA when we predict things. I'd also like to think that Q2 production/month would continue to ramp up each month sequentially resulting in a higher overall revenue #. You aren't getting to $5M/month (as they said was possible by the end of 2019) by little jumps per month. It also depends on how much AT&T and T-mobile take on their backlog and/if POLA was able to start to get some Tier 2 US sales. We know there won't be any international this quarter---at least through today.
Let's say $9.5M though....
$9.5M x 31.5% margins. They did 30.8% last quarter and that's with how much of January labor being spent to move equipment around vs doing work. So at 31.5% = $2.992M gross.
G&A and R&D were $2.31M last quarter. Let's assume it goes to $2.35M. That gives $679K before interest & taxes. Interest will be approx $11K. = $669K left. They have approx $250K or so in tax loss carryforward. After you subtract that out and multiple the balance by 0.74 for Fed & State, it gives $560K or approx 5.5 cents/share.
Imo, $9.5M and 5.5 cents/share "should" be the low number expected. I doubt the stock price is predicting this. The key is will there be international orders announced between now and when Q2 earnings come out? Can they make comments that show they can truly get this to $15M/qtr? There is no way the stock price is pricing any of this in right now. They are saying the company will struggle like always. History says they are right, however, I'm still hopeful that good things are coming.
