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The pending food crisis clock is ticking louder now.

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HowardHughs Member Level  Tuesday, 06/04/19 08:58:35 AM
Re: sumisu post# 121
Post # of 143 
The pending food crisis clock is ticking louder now.
Grains are my focus and we should see problems increasing from this point forward until a crisis hits in about 2 years(2021ish).

NASS indicated late Monday that just 67% of the US corn crop was planted, advancing 9% from last week. That was below most estimates and is 29% behind the 5-year average. That leaves ~28.6 million acres left to plant among the 18 NASS reported states, when comparing to the March Intentions report. US corn emergence was reported at 46%, which lags the normal pace of 84%. The monthly Grain Crushing report showed 440.48 mbu of corn used for ethanol in April. That was slightly above March but was down 1.09% from last year. USDA showed 743,077 MT of corn shipped in the week of May 30 via their weekly Export Inspections report. That was less than half of the same week last year and 33% below the previous week. YTD exports are now below a year ago at 39.326 MMT (1.55 bbu). USDA also reported a total of 59,999 MT of sorghum was shipped to China.

NASS reported that 39% of the US soybean crop was planted as of June 2, lagging most estimates. That was a 10% shift on the week, with the average pace at 79%. The crop was 19% emerged vs. the 56% average. The monthly Fats & Oils report from USDA indicated 171.54 mbu of soybeans crushed in April, above estimates of 170 mbu. That was slightly lower than a year ago and 4.39% below March (1 less processing day). Total soy oil stocks were shown at 2.258 billion pounds. The weekly Export Inspections report indicated that 498,771 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week that ended on May 30. That was a 6.81% drop from the week prior and down 13% from this week in 2018. A total of 334,290 MT (67%) went to China.

Traders were expecting a reduction in winter wheat condition ratings due to excessive rainfall. That wasn’t the case. USDA showed ratings up 3% in the gd/ex to 64%, with the Brugler500 index up 4 points to 367. The sub-index for HRW states was steady from the previous week @ 372, with SRW down 2 points at 322. Heading of the crop was at 76%, behind the 84% average. Harvest has moved north into Oklahoma (1% done vs. 7% average). The spring wheat crop was at 93% planted as of Sunday, 3% behind normal, with 69% emerged. Initial ratings were shows at 83% gd/ex or 390 on the Brugler500. All wheat export inspections in the final full week of the MY were 592,774 MT. That was an 11.67% jump from the previous week and 70.59% larger yr/yr. Accumulated shipments were seen at 24.79 MMT (911 mbu), and with Census adjustments could be above USDA’s projected 925 mbu. The final number won’t be out until July.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


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