Savvy Trades and Investments

[gilead23]

Hweb CODA

I haven’t actually bought or sold any shares in awhile. Right now I am sitting on roughly 18% of my original position. If I was a chart guy I would be saying this is oversold and due for a trading bounce which it probably is.

As it stands I’m not buying more right now. My thinking is there is a good chance that even with a good quarter that confirms all of my rosy hopes for their potential that I can jump back in for a relatively modest premium to where we are right now. This was my approach with FSI. I was concerned about the upcoming quarter and figured even with a decent quarter I would pay a minimum premium vs what I sold for while protecting against the enormous downside had they earned .01 instead of .11 which seemed possible.

That one worked out swimmingly as someone put some large blocks out on earnings day and I was able to snap up my shares for basically what I sold them for.

What I think the next coda quarter will tell us is if their product refreshes and new defense work are getting traction or if we are simply sitting around waiting for a big navy contract. If it’s the former I hope to be able to buy back shares at a relatively modest premium. If I’m wrong and it runs away from
me I still have a decent block of shares.

On the other hand if revenues are weak and expenses are up I’m pretty much sitting around waiting for a big news announcement which may or may not happen. At 4 or even 6 a share I was ok with that. At 10 I have as much as I am willing to hold. I don’t need to buy any more unless I see more confirmation.

Really none of what I am describing says anything about the company fundamentals. My take is based on portfolio risk and I feel like my now comparatively modest position is appropriate given the price and uncertainty.