Savvy Trades and Investments

[researcher59]

Wade: congrats on your amazingly quick comeback, although you're still lagging the S&P which is up 13% YTD. If you had put all your cash in SPXL at the beginning of the year you'd be up around 41% YTD. So your results in market timing have been very mixed. Back in January you were extremely bearish and the market proceed to rally over 25% from the bottom.

I'd agree though that the market risk is now to the downside with a 10% or greater correction from the peak very possible in the coming weeks and months.

As for crude oil, these small caps are well hedged through 2020, so they'll be fine. And the futures market, which reflects the consensus, shows crude prices dropping only about 5% over next 2 years to around $56/bbl.

If you're that bearish on crude you should short the futures. You'll make some big bucks if you're right. Or buy DWT the 3x short.

I rather think that Saudi Arabia, Russia and OPEC won't allow crude to drop below $50, if even that low. US producers are also cutting back as reflected by the declining rig count.

I'm actually short crude oil futures just as a partial hedge against my longs in the small cap producers, so that's helped me the past few weeks.