Apple Inc (AAPL)

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A ban in China will cause Apple to lose $11.5 billion dollars. Estimating Potential Revenue Loss From A Ban

As a first step, we estimate shipments of older iPhone models in China. We estimate that global iPhone shipments will come in at about 220 million in FY’19. Assuming that 20% of volumes come from Greater China (based on the company’s FY’18 geographic revenue mix), we estimate that 44 million iPhones will be sold in China in FY’19. If we assume that 40% of these phones are legacy devices, it would translate into 17.6 million units of older iPhones. Assuming an ASP of $650 per device, this would translate into a revenue loss of about $11.5 billion for Apple in FY’19