Tuesday, May 07, 2019 7:54:16 PM
Data Rider
MMGYS
Just Data Tonight EnJoy
May 7, 2019 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized ·
GOLD: $1284.30 UP $1.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $14.89 DOWN 3 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Closing access prices:
Gold : 1284.60
silver: $14.91
JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)
today RECEIVING: 4/6
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 05/06/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 05/06/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:15:52
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,281.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/06/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/08/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 2
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 164
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.0186 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 164 NOTICES FOR 16400 OZ (.5101 TONNES)
SILVER
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
150 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 750,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 3127 for 15,635,000 oz
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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$5941 UP 195.00
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6007 UP 170
end
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Let us have a look at the data for today
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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS FROM 200,109 UP TO 200,172 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW COMMENCES FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:
0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 751 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 751 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 751 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 751 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.49 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:
27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.
3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.
AND NOW 17.990 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:
8273 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 8273 CONTRACTS) OR 41.37 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1654 CONTRACTS OR 8.27 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 41.37 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.27% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 782.23 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ
FEB 2019 TOTALS: 147.4 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 207.835 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 182.87 MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 63 DESPITE THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 751 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.
TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 814 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 751 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 139 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.92 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.008 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 150 NOTICE(S) FOR 750,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY: 17,990,000 OZ..
HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 CONTRACTS, TO 442,488 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $2.35//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2775 CONTRACTS:
APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 2775 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 442,488. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5046 CONTRACTS: 2271 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2775 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5046 CONTRACTS OR 504,600 OZ OR 15.69TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $2.35….AND WITH THAT RISE, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 15.69 TONNES!!!!!!.??????????????????????????????????????????
AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:
“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 30,150 CONTRACTS OR 3,015,000 OR 93.45 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6030 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 93.45 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 93.45/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 1909.35 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 344.36 TONNES
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 497.16 TONNES
APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 456.10 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2271 WITH THE RISE IN PRICING ($2.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2775 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2775 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN GOOD GAIN OF 7330 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
2775 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2771 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 15.69 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $2.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER A STRONG PERCENTAGE OF OI WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.
we had: 6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY
NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD BEING SUPPLIED TO THE CROOKS.
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
SLV/
WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY:
NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS from 200,109 UP TO 200,172 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..
EFP ISSUANCE:
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 751 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 751 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 63 CONTRACTS TO THE 751 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 814 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.070 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 17.990 MILLION OZ FOR MAY
RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 751 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .21%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7671 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 61.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7829 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%
3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 China/Chinese affairs
i)China/USA
Bannon states the 6 factors to illustrate why the USA is in an economic war with China and it is futile to compromise
( Steve Bannon)
ii)Not good: Beijing puts his army on ‘heightened alert” over uSA warships in the South China sea. Tensions are rising!!
( zerohedge)
iii)Markets continue on a downward spiral even after Liu confirms his Washington visit on Thursday…Beijing is quite prepared for the talks to breakdown again.( zerohedge)
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)GERMANY/USA
Pompeo snubs Merkel with a last minute cancellation. Pompeo is adamant that Europe ceases to purchase oil from Iran
( zerohedge)
ii)Germany/Deutsche bank
Chris Whalen is one smart cookie. In his latest commentary he discusses Deutsche bank’s problems and how its crisis can and will become our crisis. He outlines the Bank’s huge derivative exposure
(Chris Whalen/American Conservative Blog)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
i)Israel/Gaza
ii)Russia/Syria
Final showdown is on the horizon as the Russians are ramping up airstrikes in Idlib province.
(zerohedge)
iii)IRAN/USA
Expect Iran to go on the warpath as the EU is basically non capable of facing USA sanctions
(courtesy zerohedge)
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
One of my favourite Bellwether indicators: The Baltic Dry Index which is simply a measure of cost to move dry goods by ship. It just broke a 1000 down to 985. We are close to the worst levels last seen in 2008 at around 700.
( Scrap Register)
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)Gold investors puzzled? I think you must be brain dead not to realize that gold/silver are manipulated.
(courtesy Kitco/GATA)
ii)Ronan Manly touches on the churning of membership from London’s gold banking cartel from which Soc Generale was the last one to leave
( Ronan Manly)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
MARKET TRADING//
a)Market trading: last night
Markets replunge after Lighthizer confirms the tariffs hikes will take place after China reneges on its promises
( zerohedge)
b)This morning
This morning: Dow dumps 300 points as the opening bounces dies. Treasury yields also tumble.
(zerohedge)
ii)Market data
ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
the Bond King Gundlach is just spoken and he warns that the bear market is just getting started and he believes that there is a better than 50% chance that the trade talks collapse
(courtesy zerohedge)
SWAMP STORIES
a)Ex CIA chief explains that the FBI did indeed conduct espionage on the Trump campaign
( zerohedge)
b)Strange: Arizona democrats after claiming that there is no border no beg Trump for help with a flood of migrants
go figure…
( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
Let us head over to the comex:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 442,488 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.35) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2775 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:
0 FOR JUNE ’19: 2775 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2775 CONTRACTS.
THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5046 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2775 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 COMEX CONTRACTS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 5046 contracts OR 504,600 OZ OR 15.69 TONNES.
We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 127 contracts, having LOST 7 contracts. We had 13 notices served yesterday so we gained 6 contracts or an additional 600 oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus
The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 2422 contracts DOWN to 288,933. July GAINED 2 contracts to stand at 53. After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 4531 contracts up to 82,156 contracts.
TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:
WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 600 OZ. (0.0186 TONNES)
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And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS FROM 200,209 UP TO 200,172(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.
WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. HERE WE HAVE 621 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 50 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 76 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER 26 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 130,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019
THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. HERE THIS MONTH LOST 12 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 702. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH LOST 17 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 152,542 CONTRACTS.
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 150 notice(s) filed for 750,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 255,546 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 258,702 contracts
INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD
MAY 7 /2019.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
10,313.881
oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
600 OZ
(0.0186TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
121 contracts
(12100 oz)
0.3763 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
164 notices
16400 OZ
.5101 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 dealer entries:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
We had 0 kilobar entries
we had 0 deposit into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz
ii) Into everybody else: zero oz
total gold deposits: nil oz
very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived today
we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:
(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)
this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.
Gold withdrawals;
i) We had one withdrawal:
Out of Delaware: 10,313.881 oz
.
total gold withdrawals; 10,313.881 oz
i) we had 0 adjustments today
FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (164) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (127 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 28,500 OZ OR 0.8864 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:
No of notices served (164 x 100 oz) + (127)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz )which equals 28,500 oz standing OR 0.8864 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.
We gained 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver. We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! WE HAVE ONLY 6.604 TONNES OF REGISTERED ( GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.8864 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.
total registered or dealer gold: 212,322.479 oz or 6.604tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold; 7,749,406.282 oz 241.03 tonnes
FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018
AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND. BY MONTH’S END: 2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 114 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL
INITIAL standings/SILVER
MAY 7 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
214,135.812 oz
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
299,295.450 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
150
CONTRACT(S)
(750,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
471 contracts
2,355,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3127 contracts
15,635,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
**
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 1 deposits into the customer account
into JPMorgan: nil
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)
into Int. Brinks: 299,295.450 oz
total customer deposits today: 299,295.450 oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 214,135.812 oz
total withdrawals: 214,135.812 oz
we had 2 adjustment :
out of CNT: 142,558.858 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT
ii) out of Brinks: 286,038.580 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks
total dealer silver: 95.038 million
total dealer + customer silver: 308.329 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 150 contract(s) FOR 750,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3127 x 5,000 oz = 15,635,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (621) and the number of notices served upon today (150 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3127(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 621) -number of notices served upon today (150)x 5000 oz equals 17,990,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.
We GAINED 26 contracts or an additional 130,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.
FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 57,767 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,687 CONTRACTS..
..
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,687 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 338 million OZ 48.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end
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NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.24% (MAY 7/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -2.20% to NAV (MAY 7/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.24%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/
(courtesy Sprott/GATA)
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):
NAV 12.86 TRADING 12.29/DISCOUNT 4.44
END
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//
APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES
APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES
APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES
APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//
APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES
APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03
APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES
APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES
APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES
APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.
APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES
APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES
APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
MAY 7/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 739.64 tonnes
*IN LAST 592 TRADING DAYS: 194.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 492 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.49 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.
end
Now the SLV Inventory/
MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//
MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/
MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////
APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//
April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167
MAY 7/2019:
Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ
LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:
THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE
YOUR DATA…..
6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53/
XXXXXXXX
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.48%
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.75
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.27
end
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne
Is Turkey The Snowflake That Unleashes The European Banking System Avalance?
7, May
by Claudio Grass on ClaudioGrass.ch
Turkey’s Inevitable Recession, Surging Gold Demand,
Record Gold Highs and Contagion
Turkey’s debt problem, coupled with the plummeting lira, is arguably the most important risk factor for the nation’s economy.
To make matters worse, far from it posing a threat just to Turkey itself, it also has the potential to inflict significant damage elsewhere too, starting with key economies in the Eurozone.
At first glance, the situation in Turkey might resemble many past similar scenarios of a heavily indebted nation with a plummeting currency that descends into a severe recession and eventually gets bailed out, like Greece.
However, there is one key difference that makes Turkey’s debt problem much more complicated and potentially dangerous. Unlike Greece, Italy or other seriously debt-laden economies, it’s not just government borrowing that’s the main risk here.
Instead, it’s the unsustainable and increasingly unfinanceable corporate debt that makes Turkey a ticking time bomb and renders an IMF-rescue option problematic.
Private debt to GDP stands at a staggering 170%, while, overall, over half of the borrowing is denominated in foreign currencies. Thus, the collapse of the lira has made it extremely challenging for businesses to pay off or even service their debt, while the default risk has surged. Around $179 billion in external debt is due to mature until July 2019, which amounts to almost a quarter of the country’s annual economic output, according to JPMorgan estimates. Most of that, $146 billion, is owed by the private sector and banks in particular.
However dire the current debt predicament might seem for Turkey’s businesses and economic outlook, it is important to also consider the implications for its debtholders, especially since European banks feature prominently among them. In fact, the level of exposure in some cases is so worrying that it justifiably raises concerns that what happens in Turkey won’t just stay in Turkey.
Spain’s banking sector is one of very few in the European bloc that was so far considered not to be problematic; especially in comparison to Italian or Greek banks.
However, the exposure of Spanish banks to Turkish debt means that the currency and debt woes of Europe’s neighbor have decisively challenged these assumptions. Spain’s second-biggest bank, BBVA, controls 49.9% of Turkish bank Garanti, which has already reported a rise in non-performing loans. Spanish banks also led the lending spree to Turkish businesses over the past years, rendering them vulnerable to the spiking default risk.
Although Spanish banks were by far the greatest lenders for Turkey, French, Italian and German banks also have significant exposure to Turkish debt. This already became problematic from the onset of the Turkish woes this past summer, when investors dumped Eurozone bank shares and prices suffered significant blows. Among the worst hit were BBVA, Unicredit, and PNB Paribas. Yet still, a blow to the stock price is nothing compared to the damage that a sustained currency crisis and rising default risk can inflict to the already vulnerable European banking sector.
Key lessons
Overall, Turkey’s woes are yet another important and timely reminder of the frailty of the current monetary system and of the banking sector, as well as of the systemic weaknesses and inevitable unsustainability of a centrally planned economy and of fiat money.
After all, the lira’s value, as that of any other fiat currency, depends on the trust the people place in its issuer. Once that is lost or even shaken, no measures and no force applied by the central planners can stabilize it. We saw that play out over the last months in Turkey, with the government trying a wide variety of approaches to control the currency’s fall, to no avail. That clearly demonstrated the flimsy and fickle nature of the entire system.
As the Turkish currency collapsed, demand for gold more than doubled in the country, while gold priced in lira reached all-time highs, as is to be expected in times of crisis.
Erdogan’s public calls for citizens to sell the “gold under their pillows” and buy lira to help defend the country against the “economic attacks” from the outside were clearly ignored. Consumers flocked to the precious metal in response to the deteriorating fiat currency and gold imports to Turkey increased eightfold last December, while the Turkish central bank itself also dramatically increased its official reserves over the last two years.
As the country now joins the long list of nations that came to regret reckless interventionism and aggressive monetary manipulation, it also sends a strong message to those investors who are wise enough to heed it. In order to effectively prepare for the upcoming economic slowdown and all that it will bring, one needs to hedge against these inherent risks that are deeply embedded in our current system.
While inflation, currency depreciations, volatile stock markets or a rise in toxic debt might be all we’ll see during the next downturn, nobody can be sure what the extent of the damage will be and whether it would be contained before threatening the banking system at large. Especially in Europe, the outlook is rather grim and the odds of a timely rescue are not favorable. As the central bank is already overstretched, after so many years of QE and negative interest rates, it is likely to lack the tools to fight the next recession and to limit its impact.
Turkey’s story can arguably be seen as a warning and as a cautionary tale. While governments and central banks will dismiss it, individual investors should not. Separating the signal from the noise has always been crucial in forming solid strategies and in planning for the future.
At this stage, when the signs of a widespread economic slowdown can already be seen on the horizon, the necessity of a physical precious metals position is imperative for any responsible investor who wishes to preserve their wealth.
Avoid ‘.Com Gold’ – 7 Real Risks to Your Gold Ownership
Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
end
GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.
Gold investors puzzled? I think you must be brain dead not to realize that gold/silver are manipulated.
(courtesy Kitco/GATA)
If gold investors are puzzled, it’s from a lack of financial journalism
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2019-05-06 15:56. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:06p Monday, May 6, 2019
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold investors, Kitco News market analyst Jim Wyckoff writes today, “are scratching their heads and wondering why their metal has not reacted more positively to unsettling developments on the geopolitical front”:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-05-06/Gold-Bulls-Perplexed-Safe-Haven-Me…
Maybe some gold investors share Wyckoff’s supposed puzzlement, but not all. In any case Wyckoff himself, most other analysts quoted by Kitco News, and financial journalism generally are to blame for any puzzlement.
…
..For when has Wyckoff or any other analyst quoted by Kitco addressed the possibility of central bank intervention against gold, intervention that has a long history in Western government policy?
Much of that history is summarized here:
http://www.gata.org/node/14839
Indeed, how can anyone purport to analyze the gold market without reference to the questions posed in the last year by GATA and U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, to the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission?
Those questions are:
— To the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department: Which markets are you secretly trading in, and for what purposes?
— To the CFTC: Is market-manipulating trading undertaken by the U.S. government or its agents subject to the commission’s jurisdiction or is it legal, authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 and other federal legislation?
See:
http://www.gata.org/node/18979
The Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and CFTC have refused to answer these questions, even as CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States, has just extended for another year its “Central Bank Incentive Program,” offering discounts for secret trading by governments and central banks in all futures contracts on CME Group exchanges:
http://www.gata.org/node/18925
Ordinarily when someone is puzzled the response is to ask questions. But with one laughably botched exception, neither Wyckoff nor any other market analyst at Kitco News appears to have tried questioning any government agency about its involvement in the gold market.
Three and a half years ago Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone sat smiling as an official of Austria’s central bank, Peter Mooslechner, said in an interview that Asian central banks “are increasing their reserves a lot and they are much more active in using also their reserves in trading in the market and intervening into the market”:
http://www.gata.org/node/15878
What did Mooslechner mean by “intervening”? He didn’t say, Cambone didn’t ask, and the Austrian central bank refused to answer questions about its official’s remark:
http://www.gata.org/node/15892
A little simple journalism could remove all puzzlement about the gold price. Why is it never attempted by those posing as financial journalists? And why should anyone involved with gold pay any attention to those who fail to attempt it?
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
Help keep GATA going:
GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:
http://www.gata.org
To contribute to GATA, please visit:
http://www.gata.org/node/16
end
Ronan Manly touches on the churning of membership from London’s gold banking cartel from which Soc Generale was the last one to leave
(courtesy Ronan Manly)
Ronan Manly: Churning membership curses London gold banking cartel
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2019-05-06 16:49. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:50p ET Monday, May 6, 2019
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Bullion Star’s gold market analyst Ronan Manly today examines the churning membership of the London gold banking cartel, from which Societe Generale has just resigned.
Manly’s commentary is headlined “Curse of the London Gold Fix Strikes Again as SocGen Abandons Ship” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/curse-of-london-gold-fix-s…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
iii) Other Physical stories
-END-
Gold trading/
end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)
US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case
The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Dawn Giel | Dan Mangan
Published 3:33 PM ET Tue, 20 Nov 2018 Updated 10:32 AM ET Wed, 21 Nov 2018CNBC.com
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.
Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.
The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.
The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.
The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.
Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.
Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.
In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”
“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.
J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.
Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”
Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.
In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.
Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.
Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.
In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.
Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.
Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.
The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.
Dawn GielReporter
end
A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)
Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
71671201
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.
Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.
Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.
On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.
“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.
The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.
In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.
end
March 4.2019
Parker City News
JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader
Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.
At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.
The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.
The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.
Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.
Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.
Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.
One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”
J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.
The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.
After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.
Kovel declined to comment.
Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.
-END-
Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM
Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-03-05 14:40. Section: Daily Dispatches
9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —
http://www.gata.org/node/18844
— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.
…
In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.
According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.
The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —
http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf
— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”
Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:
http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf
Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.
How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
end
* * *
Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7671/
//OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7829 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69%
HANG SANG CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%
3. Europe stocks OPENED RED
USA dollar index RISES TO 97.55/Euro FALLS TO 1.1194
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.62/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 61.65 and Brent: 70.41
3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO –02%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.58% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.96%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.34
3k Gold at $1280.30 silver at: 14.82 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.09
3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.62 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0195 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1414 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to –0.02%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.47% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.89%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 6.1396..they are toast
Futures Resume Slide As Traders Brace For Trade War Impact
There was renewed turbulence in global markets overnight, which however eased modestly following Monday’s rollercoaster, after the late Tuesday shock confirmation by USTR Lighthizer that the US would indeed hike tariffs at midnight on Friday even as China’s top trade negotiator Liu He confirmed he was headed to the US for what may prove to be a futile trip. And, like yesterday, stocks in Europe and Asia dropped alongside U.S. equity-index futures as a slew of trade headlines continued to roil traders around the globe. The dollar edged higher and Treasury yields were steady, while Turkey’s lira plunged as concerns about its politics erupted again.
“Reality is setting in that they are not going to get the master deal, the grand deal that they are hoping for and there’s a lot of work to be done,” Oliver Pursche, Bruderman Asset Management’s chief market strategist, told Bloomberg TV. “Our best guess is that these tariffs will be implemented on Friday, but will then be reversed relatively quickly.’’
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fell to a five-week low as declines for banks and oil producers outweighed gains for real-estate companies; the index slumped to session lows just after 7am ET, falling as much as 0.6% with energy shares among the worst performing industry groups as crude extended losses. The SXEP was down 1.2%, tracking oil lower as Saudi Arabia was reported to supply extra crude to its customers in Asia. Banks also dragged Stoxx 600 lower, with SX7P down for a 2nd day. As a result of the recent selling in Europe, the Stoxx 600 upward channel has now been broken, and more downside is to be expected.
Futures on the S&P 500 index retreated even as China confirmed its vice premier would attend trade talks in Washington this week; the report sparked a brief 15 point spike earlier in the session which however was quickly faded.
To be sure, the drop could be worse, but many investors continue to hope that the tariff threats are a negotiating tactic, especially as Beijing confirmed its top negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, would go to Washington on Thursday and Friday as planned.
“We expect the situation to de-escalate as the issue seems solvable and Liu He, China’s lead negotiator, is continuing with his plans to travel to Washington D.C. for talks this week,” said Oxford Economics economist Louis Kuijs. “Nonetheless, the probability of renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade war has risen substantially, which would be a drag on their respective economies, especially on China.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower, led by industrial and technology firms, after slumping on trade tensions Monday. MSCI’s broadest global and Asian indexes had largely held their ground overnight, though Japan’s Nikkei did take a delayed 1.5 percent hit, having been closed for over a week. Markets in the region were mixed, with China advancing and Japan and South Korea retreating. The Topix fell 1.1% as Japanese traders returned from a long holiday break. Murata Manufacturing Co. and Komatsu Ltd. were among the biggest drags. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, driven by Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Co. and Shanghai International Airport Co. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fluctuated, with a rally in Housing Development Finance Co. countering Reliance Industries Ltd.’s decline. Read more about stocks in Japan here, China here and India here. Asia Picks Up the Pieces After Trade Sell-off: Taking Stock
In FX, the euro erased an advance after German factory orders rebounded less than economists’ forecasts in March; bonds in the region rose.
Earlier, Australia’s dollar jumped and government bonds fell after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 1.50% for the 30th consecutive meeting. RBA Governor Philip Lowe says in statement Tuesday that “The Board judged that it was appropriate to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting. In doing so, it recognized that there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labor market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target. Given this assessment, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the labor market at its upcoming meetings.” According to the RBA , falling property prices — Sydney down 14.5% from 2017 peak — are prompting households to rein in spending as consumption accounts for nearly 60% of GDP. Reflecting that, economic growth slowed to an annualized 1% in the second half of last year from almost 4% in the first six months.
Also overnight, the Swedish krona was caught in choppy trade following contrasting headlines from the minutes of a Riksbank review.
Over in China, the yuan had recouped most of its early losses against the dollar by the end of trading there as investors largely digested the situation. The offshore yuan clawed as high as 6.7628 per dollar at one point, trimming the intraday loss to 6 pips from the previous late night close of 6.7622.
However, the highlight of the overnight session was once again the Turkish lira, which was back under heavy fire after the country’s elections board ruled to scrap and re-run Istanbul elections. It slid 1.5% past the 6.15 per dollar which also sent government bonds tumbling.
“The rule of law is under scrutiny by markets,” UniCredit EM FX strategist Kiran Kowshik said. “It is also clear that Turkish reserves are depleted and there are questions about whether Turkey can weather its immediate challenges without an external anchor like the IMF.”
In overnight central bank news, Fed’s Kaplan (Non-Voter. Dove) said he would currently stand pat and doesn’t see a need to lower rates to address inflation, while he added that he doesn’t have a bias for the direction of the next rate move. Furthermore, Kaplan said he has been trying to flag issue of risky corporate debt which could be a burden on the economy in a downturn and is concerned global growth is decelerating.
In the commodity market, oil futures traded steady to higher on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran and Venezuela kept supply concerns alive, while the Trump administration dispatched warships to the Middle East in a warning to Iran.
Today we get the JOLTS and consumer credit data, while Allergan, Emerson Electric, Ferrari, Sprint, and Lyft are among companies reporting earnings.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,922.25
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 385.68
MXAP down 0.1% to 160.85
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 531.93
Nikkei down 1.5% to 21,923.72
Topix down 1.1% to 1,599.84
Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 29,363.02
Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,926.39
Sensex down 0.04% to 38,583.72
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,295.68
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,176.99
German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to -0.011%
Euro up 0.01% to $1.1200
Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 2.208%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 0.961%
Brent futures down 0.9% to $70.57/bbl
Gold spot little changed at $1,281.23
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.53
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
China’s top trade negotiator Liu He will visit the U.S. this week for trade talks, in a sign its leadership is battling to keep negotiations on track after President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure with plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods Friday
The Federal Reserve is further amplifying its warnings about the perils of risky corporate debt, saying in a Monday report that the market grew 20 percent last year and that lending standards continue to slip.
German factory orders rose for the first time in three months in March, though the increase was smaller than economists forecast and marks only a partial recovery from a recent slump.
President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiator said the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday, accusing Beijing of backpedaling on commitments it made during negotiations
Chinese stocks saw muted gains after Monday’s $487 billion rout. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 percent at the midday break after losing 5.6 percent Monday
U.S. interest rates are “in the right place” and don’t need to be lowered, although weak inflation merits close watching, according to Robert Kaplan, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Turkey ordered a re-run of mayoral elections in Istanbul, overturning a rare defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and threatening long-term damage to the country’s democracy and economy
Iran signaled Monday that it may scale back some commitments made as part of the 2015 nuclear deal in response to tightening U.S. sanctions, a move that could escalate tensions after the Trump administration deployed an aircraft carrier to the Gulf
Iron ore rallied after Brazilian mining giant Vale SA’s operations were hit by fresh disruption, with a local court reversing a decision that had allowed operations at a key mine to resume and the company scaling back expectations for 2019 sales volumes
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin refused to release President Donald Trump’s personal and business tax returns, setting up what could become one of the biggest legal showdowns between the president and a Congress seeking to investigate him.
Asian equities traded mixed as sentiment remained at the whim of the ongoing US-China trade uncertainty with Nikkei 225 (-1.5%) and KOSPI (-0.9%) the underperformers on return from holiday closures as they got their first opportunity to react to US President Trump’s tariff threat. Nonetheless, there was no lack of success stories in Japan with Sony among the biggest gainers after having waited through a 10-day closure to finally benefit from a return to profit in Q4 and with SoftBank boosted as it considers an IPO for its USD 100bln Vision Fund. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was positive with the index led by strength in mining names and after mostly encouraging Trade Balance and Retail Sales data, while some participants were also hopeful for a rate cut by the RBA although this failed to materialize and subsequently saw the index give back some of the gains. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) nursed some of the prior day’s sell-off in which the mainland bourse had dropped nearly 6% due to the heightened trade tensions. Furthermore, the recovery also followed a substantial rebound on Wall St after reports that the China delegation will still travel to Washington D.C. provided a glimmer of hope, although this was later clouded after-hours as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer confirmed a deterioration in negotiations and that tariffs will be increased if there is no agreement by Friday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as the risk-averse tone in Tokyo spurred demand government bonds and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 940bln of JGBs.
Top Asian News
Lira Bears Out in Force as Vote Re-Run Ramps Up Political Risk; Credit Agricole Sees Lira Weakness Leading to Tighter Policy
China Stocks See Muted Gains From Monday’s $487 Billion Rout
Saudi Aramco Said to Give Extra Oil to Crude-Hungry Asian Buyers
Malaysia Joins Asia Easing Cycle With Quarter-Point Rate Cut
Major European indices are broadly in the red, and after drifted lower as the day has advanced [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%] in spite of risk sentiment receiving a boost prior to the cash open when China announced that Vice Premier Liu He is to attend trade talks in the US on the 9th & 10th of May. The FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is mildly lagging its peers as UK markets return from a bank holiday, and as such are reacting to the US-China trade updates; although, downside in the index is limited by the likes of Vodafone (+1.4%) and AstraZeneca (+1.5%) in the green after making a deal with Telefonica Deutschland (+2.2%) and announcing that their Phase 3 Calquence study achieved its primary endpoints respectively. Sectors are similarly mixed with energy names down in tandem with the oil complex, and notably the auto sector is once again in the red dragged down by heavyweight BMW (-1.0%) post-earnings. Following the Co. posted Q1 EBIT significantly lower than the prior levels and that the Co. have set aside EUR 1.4bln for anti-trust provisions after the Co. were previously warned of a significant charge resulting from an EU probe into collusion over delaying the implementation of cleaner-emissions cars. Other notable movers this morning include, AB Inbev (-0.1%) who at first fell around 1% at the open due to a slight miss on Q1 revenues and stating that short term dividend growth will be impacted deleveraging commitments. However, Co’s shares subsequently retraced much of this downside after stating that they are considering the IPO of their Asia-Pacific unit in Hong Kong, which could reportedly value the business at up to USD 40-70bln. In contrast, Infineon (-0.3%) initially moved higher by around 1.3% but gave up much of this surge as the Co. initially posted a beat on Q2 revenues but did emphasise that the market environment remains competitive.
Top European News
UniCredit Is Preparing for Possible Exit From FinecoBank
Vodafone Seeks EU Nod for German Deal With Telefonica Pledge
German Factory Orders Rebound Less Than Forecast After Slump
Niel Agrees to $3 Billion of Phone Tower Sales to Cellnex
In FX, Aud/Usd is firmly back above 0.7000, albeit off overnight recovery highs circa 0.7050, while Aud/Nzd remains nearer the top of its range (1.0640+) having reclaimed 1.0600 status from a low of 1.0575 ahead of the eagerly awaited RBA policy meeting. In sum, the OCR was maintained at 1.5% and the accompanying statement struck a less dovish tone than most were anticipating as rate expectations were finely balanced between 51% for on hold and the remainder predicting a 25 bp ease. However, the Bank reiterated that strength in the labour market outweighed weakness in wages and inflation, supporting the decision to stand pat again and monitor data/economic developments (domestic and external). Conversely, Nzd/Usd has drifted back down towards 0.6600 as the spotlight switches to the RBNZ amidst even greater expectations that an ease is in the offing – see the Ransquawk headline feed for a more detailed preview.
SEK/NOK – The next best performing G10 currencies as the Swedish Krona rebounds from recent lows vs the Euro through 10.7000 on a broad stabilisation in risk sentiment and despite Riksbank minutes reaffirming the more dovish shift at the last policy meeting. Similarly, the Nok has pared losses to trade back above 9.7500 against the Eur and the backdrop of steadier oil prices.
EM – The Cnh is consolidating off Monday’s lows around 6.7750 vs 6.8000+ in wake of reports that China’s Vice Premier Lui will attend the next round of trade talks in Washington and the perception if not reality that his presence improves the chances that an agreement will be reached in time to avoid the 25% tariffs on a further Usd200 bn goods threatened by US President Trump over the weekend. However, this has not done much to lift the gloom for the Try as the Istanbul rerun is not due until June 23 and as such the uncertain domestic political scene will remain for another 1 1/2 months at least. The Lira has consolidated off a 6.2000 base vs the Dollar, but Turkish assets are still underperforming and looking vulnerable.
GBP/EUR/JPY/CAD – All relatively flat vs. the buck as news-flow somewhat slowed in EU trade, albeit Brexit remains in the background with Labour leader Corbyn not partaking to today’s cross-party talks, whilst PM May is speculated to receive her departure date before the 1922 committee. Sky News’ Rigby did however note that prospects have increased for a cross-party deal, citing a Cabinet source. Cable largely was unreactive to a technical speech by Cunliffe on post-Brexit financial stability. GBP/USD remains below the 1.3100 handle (having fallen below its 50 DMA around the figure), with the next technical at its 100 HMA at 1.3077. Elsewhere, the single currency remains just around the 1.1200 level, with the European Commission Spring Forecast pushed back to around 11:30BST due to an earlier speech by the Commission’s President. The focus of the release will be Italy as press reported that the EC may warn of widening Italian budget deficit to 2.6% of GDP, above the government’s forecast of 2.4%. Moving on, the Loonie straddles just below 1.3500 vs. the Greenback ahead of Ivey PMIs later. Elsewhere, JPY remains sub-111 vs. the Buck, holding onto most of its post-Trump risk premia ahead of further trade talks this week with Vice Premier Liu He now attending, signalling high-level talks. USD/JPY remains flat around 110.50 with around 1.3bln in option expiries around 110.00-40.
In commodities, Brent (-0.6%) and WTI (-0.4%) prices are somewhat subdued, but have been relatively steady and are currently trading within a very narrow USD 1/bbl range this morning. News flow for the complex has been relatively light, with prices largely moving in-line with the US-China driven sentiment. However, there were reports that Israel has provided the White House with intelligence regarding a potential Iranian plot to target US interest in the Gulf. Looking ahead, we have the API weekly inventory report with expectations for crude inventories to increase by 2.5mln barrels; additionally, the EIA are releasing their Short Term Energy Outlook, where they previously forecast that the US crude oil production is to average 12.4mln BPD in 2019 and 13.1mln BOD in 2020. For reference, EIA weekly crude production stood at 12.3mln BPD in last week’s release. Gold (U/C) prices are largely unchanged on the day, with the safe haven selling off slightly following China stating that Vice Premier Liu He is to attend trade talks in the US. With the yellow metal still holding firm above the USD 1280/oz level, currently around USD 1281/oz. Elsewhere, Vale state that the Brucutu mining complex has stopped operations due to a court decision; follows on from a prior lower court decision which had stated that mining activities could resume.
US Event Calendar
10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,350, prior 7,087
3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $16.0b, prior $15.2b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Since we last spoke, I’ve lugged about 200 boxes up and down stairs, spend most waking hours unpacking them or stopping three young children and a dog from doing so, had 4 water leaks (including one sewage leak into our new larder cupboard and thus ruining it and the food of course!), co-habited daily with about 50 builders/decorators/plasterers/plumbers/electricians/landscapers, etc., which wasn’t part of the plan, watched four new episodes of Game Of Thrones (anyone see the Starbucks cup accidentally left in a scene in this week’s?), have thrown a cushion at Lionel Messi on the TV, cursed Man City, had lots of medicinal de-stressing glasses of wine, and for the first time on holidays in my career have hardly looked at financial markets. Yesterday was a bank holiday in the UK and little Maisie was really upset as there was no builders in the house for the first day since moving in two weeks ago. She was really worried about them and was a bit tearful when we said that they wouldn’t always be living with us. Well I don’t think they will be always living here but a glance at the new house suggests that it might be a while yet!
So back at work and after going on holiday before Easter believing that the US/China trade deal was more a matter of when not if, clearly since Sunday all this has changed. Inevitably market action yesterday was dominated by the dramatic trade headlines, initially sparked by President Trump’s Sunday tweet threatening an escalation in tariffs against China. Equity markets sold off across the world, though sentiment improved throughout the US session, helping stocks close off their lows. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW had opened -1.61%, -1.78%, and -2.23% lower, respectively, but ultimately rallied to end the session only -0.44%, -0.50%, and -0.25% lower. That partially reflected improving news flow that suggested trade talks will continue this week with the Chinese delegation still flying to Washington, as opposed to being cancelled as initially feared.
The real carnage was in Asia yesterday, where the Shanghai Composite fell -5.58% for its worst day since February 2016. This morning it is recouping a small amount of those declines (+0.32%). The Hang Seng is also up +0.16% a touch after falling -2.90% yesterday while the Nikkei (-1.18%) and Kospi (-1.08%) are both down as they have re-opened after holidays. China’s onshore yuan is down -0.18% this morning to 6.7781. In terms of data releases, Japan’s final April manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 vs. a preliminary reading of 49.5 and last month’s 49.2
Overnight trade headlines have continued to pour in with the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin saying that China sent through a new draft of an agreement over the weekend that included them pulling back on language in the text on a number of issues, which had the “potential to change the deal very dramatically.” He added that “we are not willing to go back on documents that have been negotiated in the past.” USTR Robert Lighthizer though said last night that the trade talks will continue and a Chinese delegation will visit Washington on Thursday and Friday. He also confirmed that the tariff hike will proceed this Friday, though he did not say if or when the additional tranche would be applied. He also said, in a confirmation of earlier unconfirmed reports, that President Trump announced the tariffs in response to the Chinese team’s apparent backtracking on prior commitments, specifically regarding their promise to change Chinese law as part of the trade deal in order to better protect foreign investors and intellectual property holders. On the other side, China’s Global Times reported in its editorial today that China is “well prepared for other potential outcomes” of its trade talks with the US, “including a temporary breakdown in talks,” while adding that even if the negotiations break down and Washington comprehensively raises tariffs, that does not mean the door to talks is closed.
The situation is still fluid, but DB’s economists have outlined their views on the likely course of events and possible macro and market implications in a series of notes published yesterday. First, our China team outlined their views here . They think China is unlikely to back down, as recent experience suggests: 1) the cost of the tariffs is borne by US consumers, 2) China’s economy has stabilised and therefore lowers the risks of a harsher impact, and 3) previously, the US administration has responded to market sell-offs by moderating their tone. The rest of our Asia macro team outlined the associated implications for the rest of the region here . If the trade war escalates, they expect currencies across the region to weaken versus the dollar. Lastly, our US economics team published their views here . They think that, on balance, tariffs could certainly be raised this week as threatened, but they are unlikely to be followed by further major escalation. They note that the impact of a broader row would have significant implications, however.
Back to yesterday and the sectors most exposed to China led losses in developed markets, with US semiconductor stocks down -1.72% and indices of materials firms down -1.38% and -1.19% in the US and Europe. Volatility surged, with the VIX index rising as much as +5.93pts, which would’ve been its biggest spike since December, but it ultimately retraced to end only +2.44pts higher at a fairly contained level of 15.31pts.
Safe havens rallied, with treasury and bund yields falling -2.9bps and -1.9bps. Those moves might have been somewhat cushioned by healthy economic data in Europe, where the composite PMI for April was revised up 0.2pts to 51.5. The improvement was driven by upgrades in Germany and France, as Spain and Italy saw marked deterioration. The FTSE MIB lagged, falling -1.63%, while the IBEX fell -0.84%, in line with the STOXX 600, which fell -0.88%. Yields on BTPs rose +1.8bps while the other major bond markets in Europe all rallied. The Turkish lira fell -1.93% after Turkey’s national election commission ordered a re-run of mayoral elections in Istanbul, overturning a rare defeat for President Erdogan.
After the Fed drove market action last week, there was some attention paid to Philadelphia Fed President Harker’s speech yesterday, but he ended up reiterating Powell’s prior comments in a pretty uneventful way. He said that the softer inflation appears transitory and that he continues to envision one more hike this year, at most. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Kaplan (non-voter) said overnight that the US interest rates are “in the right place” and don’t need to be lowered, although weak inflation merits close watching. On revival of trade tensions he said that the US-China trade war isn’t having a major impact on the US economic growth, though he warned that businesses are being forced to reconsider supply chain and logistics operations with some of them seeking alternative arrangements in South-East Asia and Mexico instead.
As mentioned above, we had final European services and composite PMIs yesterday, which were a shade better than expected. The Euro Area composite print was revised up +0.2pts to 51.5 while the services reading was up +0.3pts to 52.8. Germany’s and France’s composite readings were up +0.1pts each to 52.2 and 50.1, respectively. Italy’s and Spain’s composite prints came in below expectations, however, at 49.5 and 52.9, down -2.0pts and -2.5pts, respectively, from March. That tips Italy’s reading back into contractionary territory for the fifth time in the last seven months.
Other data yesterday included the Euro Area’s Sentix investor confidence survey, which rose to 5.3 from -0.3. That’s the first positive reading since November. Retail sales were also flat on the month in March, versus expectations for a -0.1% mom decline, and the prior month was revised +0.1pp higher. In the US, there were no major data releases, but the Fed did release its Senior Loan Officer Survey, which showed easing credit standards for mortgage loans as well as corporate and industrial loans. Credit card standards tightened a bit, but on net it was a positive report.
Turning to a recap of last week and rest of the week ahead now given that the UK was out yesterday. The highlight on Friday was the US jobs report, which showed yet another example of robust growth but tepid inflation pressure. Bond yields fell and equity markets rallied, with most US indexes returning to near their levels of Wednesday afternoon before the Fed-inspired swoon. On the week, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished +0.20% and +0.22% higher (+0.96% and +1.58% Friday), while the DOW fell -0.14% (+0.75% Friday) on some poor earnings reports. Cyclical sectors led gains, with the NYFANG index up +2.30% (+1.88% Friday) and bank stocks rallying +1.41% (+0.68% Friday). In Europe, the STOXX 600 retreated -0.16% on the week (+0.39% Friday) and the DAX outperformed, up +0.79% (+0.55% Friday). Treasuries ultimately ended up +2.7bps (-1.6bps Friday) while bunds rose +4.7bps (-0.5bps Friday). Despite a brief move near 16 earlier in the week, the VIX retraced to return to sub-13 levels, ending the week +0.2pts (-1.5pts Friday). The dollar retreated -0.54% (-0.37% Friday) as the euro strengthened +0.48% (+0.29% Friday). Emerging markets held up well, with currencies gaining a slight +0.04% (+0.50% Friday) and equities up +0.77% (+1.19% Friday).
end
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .21%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7671 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 61.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7829 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%
3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA
end
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
end
3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS
Read more Harvey here....
https://harveyorganblog.com/2019/05/07/may-7-2019/
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MMGYS
Just Data Tonight EnJoy
May 7, 2019 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized ·
GOLD: $1284.30 UP $1.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $14.89 DOWN 3 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Closing access prices:
Gold : 1284.60
silver: $14.91
JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)
today RECEIVING: 4/6
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 05/06/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 05/06/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:15:52
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,281.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/06/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/08/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 2
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 164
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.0186 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 164 NOTICES FOR 16400 OZ (.5101 TONNES)
SILVER
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
150 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 750,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 3127 for 15,635,000 oz
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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$5941 UP 195.00
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6007 UP 170
end
XXXX
Let us have a look at the data for today
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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS FROM 200,109 UP TO 200,172 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW COMMENCES FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:
0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 751 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 751 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 751 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 751 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.49 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:
27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.
3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.
AND NOW 17.990 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:
8273 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 8273 CONTRACTS) OR 41.37 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1654 CONTRACTS OR 8.27 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 41.37 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.27% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 782.23 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ
FEB 2019 TOTALS: 147.4 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 207.835 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 182.87 MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 63 DESPITE THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 751 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.
TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 814 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 751 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 139 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.92 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.008 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 150 NOTICE(S) FOR 750,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY: 17,990,000 OZ..
HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 CONTRACTS, TO 442,488 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $2.35//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2775 CONTRACTS:
APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 2775 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 442,488. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5046 CONTRACTS: 2271 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2775 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5046 CONTRACTS OR 504,600 OZ OR 15.69TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $2.35….AND WITH THAT RISE, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 15.69 TONNES!!!!!!.??????????????????????????????????????????
AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:
“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 30,150 CONTRACTS OR 3,015,000 OR 93.45 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6030 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 93.45 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 93.45/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 1909.35 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 344.36 TONNES
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 497.16 TONNES
APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 456.10 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2271 WITH THE RISE IN PRICING ($2.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2775 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2775 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN GOOD GAIN OF 7330 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
2775 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2771 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 15.69 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $2.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER A STRONG PERCENTAGE OF OI WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.
we had: 6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD UP $1.80 TODAY
NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD BEING SUPPLIED TO THE CROOKS.
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
SLV/
WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY:
NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS from 200,109 UP TO 200,172 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..
EFP ISSUANCE:
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 751 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 751 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 63 CONTRACTS TO THE 751 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 814 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.070 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 17.990 MILLION OZ FOR MAY
RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 751 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .21%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7671 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 61.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7829 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%
3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 China/Chinese affairs
i)China/USA
Bannon states the 6 factors to illustrate why the USA is in an economic war with China and it is futile to compromise
( Steve Bannon)
ii)Not good: Beijing puts his army on ‘heightened alert” over uSA warships in the South China sea. Tensions are rising!!
( zerohedge)
iii)Markets continue on a downward spiral even after Liu confirms his Washington visit on Thursday…Beijing is quite prepared for the talks to breakdown again.( zerohedge)
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)GERMANY/USA
Pompeo snubs Merkel with a last minute cancellation. Pompeo is adamant that Europe ceases to purchase oil from Iran
( zerohedge)
ii)Germany/Deutsche bank
Chris Whalen is one smart cookie. In his latest commentary he discusses Deutsche bank’s problems and how its crisis can and will become our crisis. He outlines the Bank’s huge derivative exposure
(Chris Whalen/American Conservative Blog)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
i)Israel/Gaza
ii)Russia/Syria
Final showdown is on the horizon as the Russians are ramping up airstrikes in Idlib province.
(zerohedge)
iii)IRAN/USA
Expect Iran to go on the warpath as the EU is basically non capable of facing USA sanctions
(courtesy zerohedge)
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
One of my favourite Bellwether indicators: The Baltic Dry Index which is simply a measure of cost to move dry goods by ship. It just broke a 1000 down to 985. We are close to the worst levels last seen in 2008 at around 700.
( Scrap Register)
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)Gold investors puzzled? I think you must be brain dead not to realize that gold/silver are manipulated.
(courtesy Kitco/GATA)
ii)Ronan Manly touches on the churning of membership from London’s gold banking cartel from which Soc Generale was the last one to leave
( Ronan Manly)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
MARKET TRADING//
a)Market trading: last night
Markets replunge after Lighthizer confirms the tariffs hikes will take place after China reneges on its promises
( zerohedge)
b)This morning
This morning: Dow dumps 300 points as the opening bounces dies. Treasury yields also tumble.
(zerohedge)
ii)Market data
ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
the Bond King Gundlach is just spoken and he warns that the bear market is just getting started and he believes that there is a better than 50% chance that the trade talks collapse
(courtesy zerohedge)
SWAMP STORIES
a)Ex CIA chief explains that the FBI did indeed conduct espionage on the Trump campaign
( zerohedge)
b)Strange: Arizona democrats after claiming that there is no border no beg Trump for help with a flood of migrants
go figure…
( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
Let us head over to the comex:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 442,488 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.35) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2775 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:
0 FOR JUNE ’19: 2775 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2775 CONTRACTS.
THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5046 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2775 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 COMEX CONTRACTS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 5046 contracts OR 504,600 OZ OR 15.69 TONNES.
We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 127 contracts, having LOST 7 contracts. We had 13 notices served yesterday so we gained 6 contracts or an additional 600 oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus
The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 2422 contracts DOWN to 288,933. July GAINED 2 contracts to stand at 53. After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 4531 contracts up to 82,156 contracts.
TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:
WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 600 OZ. (0.0186 TONNES)
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And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS FROM 200,209 UP TO 200,172(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.
WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. HERE WE HAVE 621 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 50 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 76 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER 26 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 130,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019
THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. HERE THIS MONTH LOST 12 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 702. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH LOST 17 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 152,542 CONTRACTS.
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 150 notice(s) filed for 750,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 255,546 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 258,702 contracts
INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD
MAY 7 /2019.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
10,313.881
oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
600 OZ
(0.0186TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
121 contracts
(12100 oz)
0.3763 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
164 notices
16400 OZ
.5101 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 dealer entries:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
We had 0 kilobar entries
we had 0 deposit into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz
ii) Into everybody else: zero oz
total gold deposits: nil oz
very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived today
we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:
(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)
this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.
Gold withdrawals;
i) We had one withdrawal:
Out of Delaware: 10,313.881 oz
.
total gold withdrawals; 10,313.881 oz
i) we had 0 adjustments today
FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (164) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (127 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 28,500 OZ OR 0.8864 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:
No of notices served (164 x 100 oz) + (127)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz )which equals 28,500 oz standing OR 0.8864 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.
We gained 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver. We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! WE HAVE ONLY 6.604 TONNES OF REGISTERED ( GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.8864 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.
total registered or dealer gold: 212,322.479 oz or 6.604tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold; 7,749,406.282 oz 241.03 tonnes
FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018
AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND. BY MONTH’S END: 2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 114 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL
INITIAL standings/SILVER
MAY 7 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
214,135.812 oz
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
299,295.450 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
150
CONTRACT(S)
(750,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
471 contracts
2,355,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3127 contracts
15,635,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
**
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 1 deposits into the customer account
into JPMorgan: nil
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)
into Int. Brinks: 299,295.450 oz
total customer deposits today: 299,295.450 oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 214,135.812 oz
total withdrawals: 214,135.812 oz
we had 2 adjustment :
out of CNT: 142,558.858 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT
ii) out of Brinks: 286,038.580 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks
total dealer silver: 95.038 million
total dealer + customer silver: 308.329 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 150 contract(s) FOR 750,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3127 x 5,000 oz = 15,635,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (621) and the number of notices served upon today (150 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3127(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 621) -number of notices served upon today (150)x 5000 oz equals 17,990,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.
We GAINED 26 contracts or an additional 130,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.
FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.
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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 57,767 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,687 CONTRACTS..
..
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,687 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 338 million OZ 48.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end
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NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.24% (MAY 7/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -2.20% to NAV (MAY 7/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.24%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/
(courtesy Sprott/GATA)
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):
NAV 12.86 TRADING 12.29/DISCOUNT 4.44
END
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//
APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES
APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES
APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES
APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//
APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES
APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03
APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES
APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES
APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES
APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.
APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES
APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES
APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10
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MAY 7/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 739.64 tonnes
*IN LAST 592 TRADING DAYS: 194.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 492 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.49 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.
end
Now the SLV Inventory/
MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//
MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/
MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////
APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//
April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167
MAY 7/2019:
Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ
LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:
THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE
YOUR DATA…..
6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53/
XXXXXXXX
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.48%
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.75
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.27
end
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne
Is Turkey The Snowflake That Unleashes The European Banking System Avalance?
7, May
by Claudio Grass on ClaudioGrass.ch
Turkey’s Inevitable Recession, Surging Gold Demand,
Record Gold Highs and Contagion
Turkey’s debt problem, coupled with the plummeting lira, is arguably the most important risk factor for the nation’s economy.
To make matters worse, far from it posing a threat just to Turkey itself, it also has the potential to inflict significant damage elsewhere too, starting with key economies in the Eurozone.
At first glance, the situation in Turkey might resemble many past similar scenarios of a heavily indebted nation with a plummeting currency that descends into a severe recession and eventually gets bailed out, like Greece.
However, there is one key difference that makes Turkey’s debt problem much more complicated and potentially dangerous. Unlike Greece, Italy or other seriously debt-laden economies, it’s not just government borrowing that’s the main risk here.
Instead, it’s the unsustainable and increasingly unfinanceable corporate debt that makes Turkey a ticking time bomb and renders an IMF-rescue option problematic.
Private debt to GDP stands at a staggering 170%, while, overall, over half of the borrowing is denominated in foreign currencies. Thus, the collapse of the lira has made it extremely challenging for businesses to pay off or even service their debt, while the default risk has surged. Around $179 billion in external debt is due to mature until July 2019, which amounts to almost a quarter of the country’s annual economic output, according to JPMorgan estimates. Most of that, $146 billion, is owed by the private sector and banks in particular.
However dire the current debt predicament might seem for Turkey’s businesses and economic outlook, it is important to also consider the implications for its debtholders, especially since European banks feature prominently among them. In fact, the level of exposure in some cases is so worrying that it justifiably raises concerns that what happens in Turkey won’t just stay in Turkey.
Spain’s banking sector is one of very few in the European bloc that was so far considered not to be problematic; especially in comparison to Italian or Greek banks.
However, the exposure of Spanish banks to Turkish debt means that the currency and debt woes of Europe’s neighbor have decisively challenged these assumptions. Spain’s second-biggest bank, BBVA, controls 49.9% of Turkish bank Garanti, which has already reported a rise in non-performing loans. Spanish banks also led the lending spree to Turkish businesses over the past years, rendering them vulnerable to the spiking default risk.
Although Spanish banks were by far the greatest lenders for Turkey, French, Italian and German banks also have significant exposure to Turkish debt. This already became problematic from the onset of the Turkish woes this past summer, when investors dumped Eurozone bank shares and prices suffered significant blows. Among the worst hit were BBVA, Unicredit, and PNB Paribas. Yet still, a blow to the stock price is nothing compared to the damage that a sustained currency crisis and rising default risk can inflict to the already vulnerable European banking sector.
Key lessons
Overall, Turkey’s woes are yet another important and timely reminder of the frailty of the current monetary system and of the banking sector, as well as of the systemic weaknesses and inevitable unsustainability of a centrally planned economy and of fiat money.
After all, the lira’s value, as that of any other fiat currency, depends on the trust the people place in its issuer. Once that is lost or even shaken, no measures and no force applied by the central planners can stabilize it. We saw that play out over the last months in Turkey, with the government trying a wide variety of approaches to control the currency’s fall, to no avail. That clearly demonstrated the flimsy and fickle nature of the entire system.
As the Turkish currency collapsed, demand for gold more than doubled in the country, while gold priced in lira reached all-time highs, as is to be expected in times of crisis.
Erdogan’s public calls for citizens to sell the “gold under their pillows” and buy lira to help defend the country against the “economic attacks” from the outside were clearly ignored. Consumers flocked to the precious metal in response to the deteriorating fiat currency and gold imports to Turkey increased eightfold last December, while the Turkish central bank itself also dramatically increased its official reserves over the last two years.
As the country now joins the long list of nations that came to regret reckless interventionism and aggressive monetary manipulation, it also sends a strong message to those investors who are wise enough to heed it. In order to effectively prepare for the upcoming economic slowdown and all that it will bring, one needs to hedge against these inherent risks that are deeply embedded in our current system.
While inflation, currency depreciations, volatile stock markets or a rise in toxic debt might be all we’ll see during the next downturn, nobody can be sure what the extent of the damage will be and whether it would be contained before threatening the banking system at large. Especially in Europe, the outlook is rather grim and the odds of a timely rescue are not favorable. As the central bank is already overstretched, after so many years of QE and negative interest rates, it is likely to lack the tools to fight the next recession and to limit its impact.
Turkey’s story can arguably be seen as a warning and as a cautionary tale. While governments and central banks will dismiss it, individual investors should not. Separating the signal from the noise has always been crucial in forming solid strategies and in planning for the future.
At this stage, when the signs of a widespread economic slowdown can already be seen on the horizon, the necessity of a physical precious metals position is imperative for any responsible investor who wishes to preserve their wealth.
Avoid ‘.Com Gold’ – 7 Real Risks to Your Gold Ownership
Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
end
GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.
Gold investors puzzled? I think you must be brain dead not to realize that gold/silver are manipulated.
(courtesy Kitco/GATA)
If gold investors are puzzled, it’s from a lack of financial journalism
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2019-05-06 15:56. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:06p Monday, May 6, 2019
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold investors, Kitco News market analyst Jim Wyckoff writes today, “are scratching their heads and wondering why their metal has not reacted more positively to unsettling developments on the geopolitical front”:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-05-06/Gold-Bulls-Perplexed-Safe-Haven-Me…
Maybe some gold investors share Wyckoff’s supposed puzzlement, but not all. In any case Wyckoff himself, most other analysts quoted by Kitco News, and financial journalism generally are to blame for any puzzlement.
…
..For when has Wyckoff or any other analyst quoted by Kitco addressed the possibility of central bank intervention against gold, intervention that has a long history in Western government policy?
Much of that history is summarized here:
http://www.gata.org/node/14839
Indeed, how can anyone purport to analyze the gold market without reference to the questions posed in the last year by GATA and U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, to the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission?
Those questions are:
— To the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department: Which markets are you secretly trading in, and for what purposes?
— To the CFTC: Is market-manipulating trading undertaken by the U.S. government or its agents subject to the commission’s jurisdiction or is it legal, authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 and other federal legislation?
See:
http://www.gata.org/node/18979
The Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and CFTC have refused to answer these questions, even as CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States, has just extended for another year its “Central Bank Incentive Program,” offering discounts for secret trading by governments and central banks in all futures contracts on CME Group exchanges:
http://www.gata.org/node/18925
Ordinarily when someone is puzzled the response is to ask questions. But with one laughably botched exception, neither Wyckoff nor any other market analyst at Kitco News appears to have tried questioning any government agency about its involvement in the gold market.
Three and a half years ago Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone sat smiling as an official of Austria’s central bank, Peter Mooslechner, said in an interview that Asian central banks “are increasing their reserves a lot and they are much more active in using also their reserves in trading in the market and intervening into the market”:
http://www.gata.org/node/15878
What did Mooslechner mean by “intervening”? He didn’t say, Cambone didn’t ask, and the Austrian central bank refused to answer questions about its official’s remark:
http://www.gata.org/node/15892
A little simple journalism could remove all puzzlement about the gold price. Why is it never attempted by those posing as financial journalists? And why should anyone involved with gold pay any attention to those who fail to attempt it?
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
Help keep GATA going:
GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:
http://www.gata.org
To contribute to GATA, please visit:
http://www.gata.org/node/16
end
Ronan Manly touches on the churning of membership from London’s gold banking cartel from which Soc Generale was the last one to leave
(courtesy Ronan Manly)
Ronan Manly: Churning membership curses London gold banking cartel
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2019-05-06 16:49. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:50p ET Monday, May 6, 2019
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Bullion Star’s gold market analyst Ronan Manly today examines the churning membership of the London gold banking cartel, from which Societe Generale has just resigned.
Manly’s commentary is headlined “Curse of the London Gold Fix Strikes Again as SocGen Abandons Ship” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/curse-of-london-gold-fix-s…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
iii) Other Physical stories
-END-
Gold trading/
end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)
US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case
The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Dawn Giel | Dan Mangan
Published 3:33 PM ET Tue, 20 Nov 2018 Updated 10:32 AM ET Wed, 21 Nov 2018CNBC.com
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.
Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.
The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.
The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.
The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.
Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.
Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.
In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”
“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.
J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.
Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”
Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.
In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.
Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.
Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.
In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.
Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.
Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.
The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.
Dawn GielReporter
end
A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)
Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
71671201
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.
Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.
Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.
On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.
“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.
The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.
In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.
end
March 4.2019
Parker City News
JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader
Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.
At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.
The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.
The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.
Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.
Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.
Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.
One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”
J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.
The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.
After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.
Kovel declined to comment.
Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.
-END-
Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM
Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-03-05 14:40. Section: Daily Dispatches
9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —
http://www.gata.org/node/18844
— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.
…
In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.
According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.
The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —
http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf
— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”
Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:
http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf
Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.
How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
end
* * *
Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7671/
//OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7829 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69%
HANG SANG CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%
3. Europe stocks OPENED RED
USA dollar index RISES TO 97.55/Euro FALLS TO 1.1194
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.62/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 61.65 and Brent: 70.41
3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO –02%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.58% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.96%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.34
3k Gold at $1280.30 silver at: 14.82 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.09
3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.62 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0195 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1414 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to –0.02%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.47% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.89%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 6.1396..they are toast
Futures Resume Slide As Traders Brace For Trade War Impact
There was renewed turbulence in global markets overnight, which however eased modestly following Monday’s rollercoaster, after the late Tuesday shock confirmation by USTR Lighthizer that the US would indeed hike tariffs at midnight on Friday even as China’s top trade negotiator Liu He confirmed he was headed to the US for what may prove to be a futile trip. And, like yesterday, stocks in Europe and Asia dropped alongside U.S. equity-index futures as a slew of trade headlines continued to roil traders around the globe. The dollar edged higher and Treasury yields were steady, while Turkey’s lira plunged as concerns about its politics erupted again.
“Reality is setting in that they are not going to get the master deal, the grand deal that they are hoping for and there’s a lot of work to be done,” Oliver Pursche, Bruderman Asset Management’s chief market strategist, told Bloomberg TV. “Our best guess is that these tariffs will be implemented on Friday, but will then be reversed relatively quickly.’’
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fell to a five-week low as declines for banks and oil producers outweighed gains for real-estate companies; the index slumped to session lows just after 7am ET, falling as much as 0.6% with energy shares among the worst performing industry groups as crude extended losses. The SXEP was down 1.2%, tracking oil lower as Saudi Arabia was reported to supply extra crude to its customers in Asia. Banks also dragged Stoxx 600 lower, with SX7P down for a 2nd day. As a result of the recent selling in Europe, the Stoxx 600 upward channel has now been broken, and more downside is to be expected.
Futures on the S&P 500 index retreated even as China confirmed its vice premier would attend trade talks in Washington this week; the report sparked a brief 15 point spike earlier in the session which however was quickly faded.
To be sure, the drop could be worse, but many investors continue to hope that the tariff threats are a negotiating tactic, especially as Beijing confirmed its top negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, would go to Washington on Thursday and Friday as planned.
“We expect the situation to de-escalate as the issue seems solvable and Liu He, China’s lead negotiator, is continuing with his plans to travel to Washington D.C. for talks this week,” said Oxford Economics economist Louis Kuijs. “Nonetheless, the probability of renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade war has risen substantially, which would be a drag on their respective economies, especially on China.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower, led by industrial and technology firms, after slumping on trade tensions Monday. MSCI’s broadest global and Asian indexes had largely held their ground overnight, though Japan’s Nikkei did take a delayed 1.5 percent hit, having been closed for over a week. Markets in the region were mixed, with China advancing and Japan and South Korea retreating. The Topix fell 1.1% as Japanese traders returned from a long holiday break. Murata Manufacturing Co. and Komatsu Ltd. were among the biggest drags. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, driven by Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Co. and Shanghai International Airport Co. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fluctuated, with a rally in Housing Development Finance Co. countering Reliance Industries Ltd.’s decline. Read more about stocks in Japan here, China here and India here. Asia Picks Up the Pieces After Trade Sell-off: Taking Stock
In FX, the euro erased an advance after German factory orders rebounded less than economists’ forecasts in March; bonds in the region rose.
Earlier, Australia’s dollar jumped and government bonds fell after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 1.50% for the 30th consecutive meeting. RBA Governor Philip Lowe says in statement Tuesday that “The Board judged that it was appropriate to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting. In doing so, it recognized that there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labor market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target. Given this assessment, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the labor market at its upcoming meetings.” According to the RBA , falling property prices — Sydney down 14.5% from 2017 peak — are prompting households to rein in spending as consumption accounts for nearly 60% of GDP. Reflecting that, economic growth slowed to an annualized 1% in the second half of last year from almost 4% in the first six months.
Also overnight, the Swedish krona was caught in choppy trade following contrasting headlines from the minutes of a Riksbank review.
Over in China, the yuan had recouped most of its early losses against the dollar by the end of trading there as investors largely digested the situation. The offshore yuan clawed as high as 6.7628 per dollar at one point, trimming the intraday loss to 6 pips from the previous late night close of 6.7622.
However, the highlight of the overnight session was once again the Turkish lira, which was back under heavy fire after the country’s elections board ruled to scrap and re-run Istanbul elections. It slid 1.5% past the 6.15 per dollar which also sent government bonds tumbling.
“The rule of law is under scrutiny by markets,” UniCredit EM FX strategist Kiran Kowshik said. “It is also clear that Turkish reserves are depleted and there are questions about whether Turkey can weather its immediate challenges without an external anchor like the IMF.”
In overnight central bank news, Fed’s Kaplan (Non-Voter. Dove) said he would currently stand pat and doesn’t see a need to lower rates to address inflation, while he added that he doesn’t have a bias for the direction of the next rate move. Furthermore, Kaplan said he has been trying to flag issue of risky corporate debt which could be a burden on the economy in a downturn and is concerned global growth is decelerating.
In the commodity market, oil futures traded steady to higher on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran and Venezuela kept supply concerns alive, while the Trump administration dispatched warships to the Middle East in a warning to Iran.
Today we get the JOLTS and consumer credit data, while Allergan, Emerson Electric, Ferrari, Sprint, and Lyft are among companies reporting earnings.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,922.25
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 385.68
MXAP down 0.1% to 160.85
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 531.93
Nikkei down 1.5% to 21,923.72
Topix down 1.1% to 1,599.84
Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 29,363.02
Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,926.39
Sensex down 0.04% to 38,583.72
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,295.68
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,176.99
German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to -0.011%
Euro up 0.01% to $1.1200
Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 2.208%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 0.961%
Brent futures down 0.9% to $70.57/bbl
Gold spot little changed at $1,281.23
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.53
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
China’s top trade negotiator Liu He will visit the U.S. this week for trade talks, in a sign its leadership is battling to keep negotiations on track after President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure with plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods Friday
The Federal Reserve is further amplifying its warnings about the perils of risky corporate debt, saying in a Monday report that the market grew 20 percent last year and that lending standards continue to slip.
German factory orders rose for the first time in three months in March, though the increase was smaller than economists forecast and marks only a partial recovery from a recent slump.
President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiator said the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday, accusing Beijing of backpedaling on commitments it made during negotiations
Chinese stocks saw muted gains after Monday’s $487 billion rout. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 percent at the midday break after losing 5.6 percent Monday
U.S. interest rates are “in the right place” and don’t need to be lowered, although weak inflation merits close watching, according to Robert Kaplan, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Turkey ordered a re-run of mayoral elections in Istanbul, overturning a rare defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and threatening long-term damage to the country’s democracy and economy
Iran signaled Monday that it may scale back some commitments made as part of the 2015 nuclear deal in response to tightening U.S. sanctions, a move that could escalate tensions after the Trump administration deployed an aircraft carrier to the Gulf
Iron ore rallied after Brazilian mining giant Vale SA’s operations were hit by fresh disruption, with a local court reversing a decision that had allowed operations at a key mine to resume and the company scaling back expectations for 2019 sales volumes
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin refused to release President Donald Trump’s personal and business tax returns, setting up what could become one of the biggest legal showdowns between the president and a Congress seeking to investigate him.
Asian equities traded mixed as sentiment remained at the whim of the ongoing US-China trade uncertainty with Nikkei 225 (-1.5%) and KOSPI (-0.9%) the underperformers on return from holiday closures as they got their first opportunity to react to US President Trump’s tariff threat. Nonetheless, there was no lack of success stories in Japan with Sony among the biggest gainers after having waited through a 10-day closure to finally benefit from a return to profit in Q4 and with SoftBank boosted as it considers an IPO for its USD 100bln Vision Fund. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was positive with the index led by strength in mining names and after mostly encouraging Trade Balance and Retail Sales data, while some participants were also hopeful for a rate cut by the RBA although this failed to materialize and subsequently saw the index give back some of the gains. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) nursed some of the prior day’s sell-off in which the mainland bourse had dropped nearly 6% due to the heightened trade tensions. Furthermore, the recovery also followed a substantial rebound on Wall St after reports that the China delegation will still travel to Washington D.C. provided a glimmer of hope, although this was later clouded after-hours as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer confirmed a deterioration in negotiations and that tariffs will be increased if there is no agreement by Friday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as the risk-averse tone in Tokyo spurred demand government bonds and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 940bln of JGBs.
Top Asian News
Lira Bears Out in Force as Vote Re-Run Ramps Up Political Risk; Credit Agricole Sees Lira Weakness Leading to Tighter Policy
China Stocks See Muted Gains From Monday’s $487 Billion Rout
Saudi Aramco Said to Give Extra Oil to Crude-Hungry Asian Buyers
Malaysia Joins Asia Easing Cycle With Quarter-Point Rate Cut
Major European indices are broadly in the red, and after drifted lower as the day has advanced [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%] in spite of risk sentiment receiving a boost prior to the cash open when China announced that Vice Premier Liu He is to attend trade talks in the US on the 9th & 10th of May. The FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is mildly lagging its peers as UK markets return from a bank holiday, and as such are reacting to the US-China trade updates; although, downside in the index is limited by the likes of Vodafone (+1.4%) and AstraZeneca (+1.5%) in the green after making a deal with Telefonica Deutschland (+2.2%) and announcing that their Phase 3 Calquence study achieved its primary endpoints respectively. Sectors are similarly mixed with energy names down in tandem with the oil complex, and notably the auto sector is once again in the red dragged down by heavyweight BMW (-1.0%) post-earnings. Following the Co. posted Q1 EBIT significantly lower than the prior levels and that the Co. have set aside EUR 1.4bln for anti-trust provisions after the Co. were previously warned of a significant charge resulting from an EU probe into collusion over delaying the implementation of cleaner-emissions cars. Other notable movers this morning include, AB Inbev (-0.1%) who at first fell around 1% at the open due to a slight miss on Q1 revenues and stating that short term dividend growth will be impacted deleveraging commitments. However, Co’s shares subsequently retraced much of this downside after stating that they are considering the IPO of their Asia-Pacific unit in Hong Kong, which could reportedly value the business at up to USD 40-70bln. In contrast, Infineon (-0.3%) initially moved higher by around 1.3% but gave up much of this surge as the Co. initially posted a beat on Q2 revenues but did emphasise that the market environment remains competitive.
Top European News
UniCredit Is Preparing for Possible Exit From FinecoBank
Vodafone Seeks EU Nod for German Deal With Telefonica Pledge
German Factory Orders Rebound Less Than Forecast After Slump
Niel Agrees to $3 Billion of Phone Tower Sales to Cellnex
In FX, Aud/Usd is firmly back above 0.7000, albeit off overnight recovery highs circa 0.7050, while Aud/Nzd remains nearer the top of its range (1.0640+) having reclaimed 1.0600 status from a low of 1.0575 ahead of the eagerly awaited RBA policy meeting. In sum, the OCR was maintained at 1.5% and the accompanying statement struck a less dovish tone than most were anticipating as rate expectations were finely balanced between 51% for on hold and the remainder predicting a 25 bp ease. However, the Bank reiterated that strength in the labour market outweighed weakness in wages and inflation, supporting the decision to stand pat again and monitor data/economic developments (domestic and external). Conversely, Nzd/Usd has drifted back down towards 0.6600 as the spotlight switches to the RBNZ amidst even greater expectations that an ease is in the offing – see the Ransquawk headline feed for a more detailed preview.
SEK/NOK – The next best performing G10 currencies as the Swedish Krona rebounds from recent lows vs the Euro through 10.7000 on a broad stabilisation in risk sentiment and despite Riksbank minutes reaffirming the more dovish shift at the last policy meeting. Similarly, the Nok has pared losses to trade back above 9.7500 against the Eur and the backdrop of steadier oil prices.
EM – The Cnh is consolidating off Monday’s lows around 6.7750 vs 6.8000+ in wake of reports that China’s Vice Premier Lui will attend the next round of trade talks in Washington and the perception if not reality that his presence improves the chances that an agreement will be reached in time to avoid the 25% tariffs on a further Usd200 bn goods threatened by US President Trump over the weekend. However, this has not done much to lift the gloom for the Try as the Istanbul rerun is not due until June 23 and as such the uncertain domestic political scene will remain for another 1 1/2 months at least. The Lira has consolidated off a 6.2000 base vs the Dollar, but Turkish assets are still underperforming and looking vulnerable.
GBP/EUR/JPY/CAD – All relatively flat vs. the buck as news-flow somewhat slowed in EU trade, albeit Brexit remains in the background with Labour leader Corbyn not partaking to today’s cross-party talks, whilst PM May is speculated to receive her departure date before the 1922 committee. Sky News’ Rigby did however note that prospects have increased for a cross-party deal, citing a Cabinet source. Cable largely was unreactive to a technical speech by Cunliffe on post-Brexit financial stability. GBP/USD remains below the 1.3100 handle (having fallen below its 50 DMA around the figure), with the next technical at its 100 HMA at 1.3077. Elsewhere, the single currency remains just around the 1.1200 level, with the European Commission Spring Forecast pushed back to around 11:30BST due to an earlier speech by the Commission’s President. The focus of the release will be Italy as press reported that the EC may warn of widening Italian budget deficit to 2.6% of GDP, above the government’s forecast of 2.4%. Moving on, the Loonie straddles just below 1.3500 vs. the Greenback ahead of Ivey PMIs later. Elsewhere, JPY remains sub-111 vs. the Buck, holding onto most of its post-Trump risk premia ahead of further trade talks this week with Vice Premier Liu He now attending, signalling high-level talks. USD/JPY remains flat around 110.50 with around 1.3bln in option expiries around 110.00-40.
In commodities, Brent (-0.6%) and WTI (-0.4%) prices are somewhat subdued, but have been relatively steady and are currently trading within a very narrow USD 1/bbl range this morning. News flow for the complex has been relatively light, with prices largely moving in-line with the US-China driven sentiment. However, there were reports that Israel has provided the White House with intelligence regarding a potential Iranian plot to target US interest in the Gulf. Looking ahead, we have the API weekly inventory report with expectations for crude inventories to increase by 2.5mln barrels; additionally, the EIA are releasing their Short Term Energy Outlook, where they previously forecast that the US crude oil production is to average 12.4mln BPD in 2019 and 13.1mln BOD in 2020. For reference, EIA weekly crude production stood at 12.3mln BPD in last week’s release. Gold (U/C) prices are largely unchanged on the day, with the safe haven selling off slightly following China stating that Vice Premier Liu He is to attend trade talks in the US. With the yellow metal still holding firm above the USD 1280/oz level, currently around USD 1281/oz. Elsewhere, Vale state that the Brucutu mining complex has stopped operations due to a court decision; follows on from a prior lower court decision which had stated that mining activities could resume.
US Event Calendar
10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,350, prior 7,087
3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $16.0b, prior $15.2b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Since we last spoke, I’ve lugged about 200 boxes up and down stairs, spend most waking hours unpacking them or stopping three young children and a dog from doing so, had 4 water leaks (including one sewage leak into our new larder cupboard and thus ruining it and the food of course!), co-habited daily with about 50 builders/decorators/plasterers/plumbers/electricians/landscapers, etc., which wasn’t part of the plan, watched four new episodes of Game Of Thrones (anyone see the Starbucks cup accidentally left in a scene in this week’s?), have thrown a cushion at Lionel Messi on the TV, cursed Man City, had lots of medicinal de-stressing glasses of wine, and for the first time on holidays in my career have hardly looked at financial markets. Yesterday was a bank holiday in the UK and little Maisie was really upset as there was no builders in the house for the first day since moving in two weeks ago. She was really worried about them and was a bit tearful when we said that they wouldn’t always be living with us. Well I don’t think they will be always living here but a glance at the new house suggests that it might be a while yet!
So back at work and after going on holiday before Easter believing that the US/China trade deal was more a matter of when not if, clearly since Sunday all this has changed. Inevitably market action yesterday was dominated by the dramatic trade headlines, initially sparked by President Trump’s Sunday tweet threatening an escalation in tariffs against China. Equity markets sold off across the world, though sentiment improved throughout the US session, helping stocks close off their lows. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW had opened -1.61%, -1.78%, and -2.23% lower, respectively, but ultimately rallied to end the session only -0.44%, -0.50%, and -0.25% lower. That partially reflected improving news flow that suggested trade talks will continue this week with the Chinese delegation still flying to Washington, as opposed to being cancelled as initially feared.
The real carnage was in Asia yesterday, where the Shanghai Composite fell -5.58% for its worst day since February 2016. This morning it is recouping a small amount of those declines (+0.32%). The Hang Seng is also up +0.16% a touch after falling -2.90% yesterday while the Nikkei (-1.18%) and Kospi (-1.08%) are both down as they have re-opened after holidays. China’s onshore yuan is down -0.18% this morning to 6.7781. In terms of data releases, Japan’s final April manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 vs. a preliminary reading of 49.5 and last month’s 49.2
Overnight trade headlines have continued to pour in with the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin saying that China sent through a new draft of an agreement over the weekend that included them pulling back on language in the text on a number of issues, which had the “potential to change the deal very dramatically.” He added that “we are not willing to go back on documents that have been negotiated in the past.” USTR Robert Lighthizer though said last night that the trade talks will continue and a Chinese delegation will visit Washington on Thursday and Friday. He also confirmed that the tariff hike will proceed this Friday, though he did not say if or when the additional tranche would be applied. He also said, in a confirmation of earlier unconfirmed reports, that President Trump announced the tariffs in response to the Chinese team’s apparent backtracking on prior commitments, specifically regarding their promise to change Chinese law as part of the trade deal in order to better protect foreign investors and intellectual property holders. On the other side, China’s Global Times reported in its editorial today that China is “well prepared for other potential outcomes” of its trade talks with the US, “including a temporary breakdown in talks,” while adding that even if the negotiations break down and Washington comprehensively raises tariffs, that does not mean the door to talks is closed.
The situation is still fluid, but DB’s economists have outlined their views on the likely course of events and possible macro and market implications in a series of notes published yesterday. First, our China team outlined their views here . They think China is unlikely to back down, as recent experience suggests: 1) the cost of the tariffs is borne by US consumers, 2) China’s economy has stabilised and therefore lowers the risks of a harsher impact, and 3) previously, the US administration has responded to market sell-offs by moderating their tone. The rest of our Asia macro team outlined the associated implications for the rest of the region here . If the trade war escalates, they expect currencies across the region to weaken versus the dollar. Lastly, our US economics team published their views here . They think that, on balance, tariffs could certainly be raised this week as threatened, but they are unlikely to be followed by further major escalation. They note that the impact of a broader row would have significant implications, however.
Back to yesterday and the sectors most exposed to China led losses in developed markets, with US semiconductor stocks down -1.72% and indices of materials firms down -1.38% and -1.19% in the US and Europe. Volatility surged, with the VIX index rising as much as +5.93pts, which would’ve been its biggest spike since December, but it ultimately retraced to end only +2.44pts higher at a fairly contained level of 15.31pts.
Safe havens rallied, with treasury and bund yields falling -2.9bps and -1.9bps. Those moves might have been somewhat cushioned by healthy economic data in Europe, where the composite PMI for April was revised up 0.2pts to 51.5. The improvement was driven by upgrades in Germany and France, as Spain and Italy saw marked deterioration. The FTSE MIB lagged, falling -1.63%, while the IBEX fell -0.84%, in line with the STOXX 600, which fell -0.88%. Yields on BTPs rose +1.8bps while the other major bond markets in Europe all rallied. The Turkish lira fell -1.93% after Turkey’s national election commission ordered a re-run of mayoral elections in Istanbul, overturning a rare defeat for President Erdogan.
After the Fed drove market action last week, there was some attention paid to Philadelphia Fed President Harker’s speech yesterday, but he ended up reiterating Powell’s prior comments in a pretty uneventful way. He said that the softer inflation appears transitory and that he continues to envision one more hike this year, at most. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Kaplan (non-voter) said overnight that the US interest rates are “in the right place” and don’t need to be lowered, although weak inflation merits close watching. On revival of trade tensions he said that the US-China trade war isn’t having a major impact on the US economic growth, though he warned that businesses are being forced to reconsider supply chain and logistics operations with some of them seeking alternative arrangements in South-East Asia and Mexico instead.
As mentioned above, we had final European services and composite PMIs yesterday, which were a shade better than expected. The Euro Area composite print was revised up +0.2pts to 51.5 while the services reading was up +0.3pts to 52.8. Germany’s and France’s composite readings were up +0.1pts each to 52.2 and 50.1, respectively. Italy’s and Spain’s composite prints came in below expectations, however, at 49.5 and 52.9, down -2.0pts and -2.5pts, respectively, from March. That tips Italy’s reading back into contractionary territory for the fifth time in the last seven months.
Other data yesterday included the Euro Area’s Sentix investor confidence survey, which rose to 5.3 from -0.3. That’s the first positive reading since November. Retail sales were also flat on the month in March, versus expectations for a -0.1% mom decline, and the prior month was revised +0.1pp higher. In the US, there were no major data releases, but the Fed did release its Senior Loan Officer Survey, which showed easing credit standards for mortgage loans as well as corporate and industrial loans. Credit card standards tightened a bit, but on net it was a positive report.
Turning to a recap of last week and rest of the week ahead now given that the UK was out yesterday. The highlight on Friday was the US jobs report, which showed yet another example of robust growth but tepid inflation pressure. Bond yields fell and equity markets rallied, with most US indexes returning to near their levels of Wednesday afternoon before the Fed-inspired swoon. On the week, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished +0.20% and +0.22% higher (+0.96% and +1.58% Friday), while the DOW fell -0.14% (+0.75% Friday) on some poor earnings reports. Cyclical sectors led gains, with the NYFANG index up +2.30% (+1.88% Friday) and bank stocks rallying +1.41% (+0.68% Friday). In Europe, the STOXX 600 retreated -0.16% on the week (+0.39% Friday) and the DAX outperformed, up +0.79% (+0.55% Friday). Treasuries ultimately ended up +2.7bps (-1.6bps Friday) while bunds rose +4.7bps (-0.5bps Friday). Despite a brief move near 16 earlier in the week, the VIX retraced to return to sub-13 levels, ending the week +0.2pts (-1.5pts Friday). The dollar retreated -0.54% (-0.37% Friday) as the euro strengthened +0.48% (+0.29% Friday). Emerging markets held up well, with currencies gaining a slight +0.04% (+0.50% Friday) and equities up +0.77% (+1.19% Friday).
end
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .21%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7671 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 61.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7829 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%
3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA
end
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
end
3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS
Read more Harvey here....
https://harveyorganblog.com/2019/05/07/may-7-2019/
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