JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

[uppandown]

iseewhatyousay invited me to post after posting otherboard.

Is this where serious investors come to talk about JDSU? If so, hope I can contribute, but am here to learn.

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Earnings /References OCT 23 Impact
by: uppandown
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/23/03 10:31 am
Msg: 630743 of 631113

The impact of a rather small earnings increase, over estimates, for example in the range of $.03 would cause JDSU to be in positive water. What is likelihood of that occuring? Maybe not too bad at all:

<Trend is for composite analysts to increase earnings estimate over last 90 days.> --from Yahoo Analysts Estimates.

Note: Increase in 3QTR capx increase in spending not included yet, since those numbers are not out except for IBD survey which shows small business capx spending will be up for 30% of those surveyed.

<Estimate is for 18% Sales growth in 2004> -- Yahoo Analyst Estimates.

Note: That this is based on both capx increase in 2004 and on increasing economy. However, note that deferred 1st half capx spending (USA TODAY) and Year over Year capx spending increase of 1% (Today's announcement), and increase in small Business capx (IBD Survey) haven't been included to show shift upwards in Sales growth either for 3QTR or 4QR 03.

This would tend to suggest the POSSIBILITY, not necessary the probability of JDSU reporting better than forecast numbers on 23rd of October. That would be followed by very much improved report for last quarter 03. Together these should drive stock price to a range of 7.50-8.00 USD, unless market sentiment takes higher on future valuation revisions for 04/05 which is always possible. However , the strongest positive advance signal(s) for JDSU is the following:

The SOXX is up SIGNIFICANTLY, and has corrected slightly. Alcatel and Nortel have been upgraded and are experiencing significant order activity. Both Telcom and Data houses are intensely focused on VoIP savings and increasing device load through Video on Demand and Wireless. These are not just "strong" indicators of upwards mobility for JDSU, they are the real "hot tips" that Analysts in this case are slightly behind the cure. However, nothing wrong with holding what you got. Probably still a good time to buy too. And, for shorts, god love them, hope they come in with both feet, will accelerate the upswing.