MacArthur Minerals Ltd (MMSDF)

[Ironman210]

Here's the upside as I see it: AUD $2.8 billion in operating profit in the first 10 years of production.

Capex will be about $330 mm for hematite/magnetite projects

Cash flow positive within a few short years.

Resource @ Moonshine = 1 billion tons magnetite, 80 million tons hematite BFO

New access to rail and port capacity. Offtake agreement with Glencore.

Huge demand from China for high quality ore (MMS' hematite is 56.2% Fe and Magnetite is 68% Fe) due to tighter environmental regulations.

The downside as I see it:

BFS study shows ore results (quality and/or quantity) off estimates by a lot. Not as bankable as hoped for.

Iron ore prices drop significantly

Poor execution in mining ops.

Lack of focus (these guys seem to go from promoting their lithium reserves to gold to iron ore depending on what's happening with metal prices. . .if they can remain focused on this iron ore story, they'll hit pay dirt. Otherwise, this will be just another bust).