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NY Crude Oil Futures Monthly Summary Analysis »» Pressing Higher
By: Marty Armstrong | April 20, 2019

THE ANALYTICAL POSTURE CURRENTLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Apr. 18, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6407 and is trading up about 41% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. The historical perspective in the NY Crude Oil Futures included a rally from 2017 moving into a major high for 2018, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the closed of 2018.


Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 years going into 2019 reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend.

Immediately, the market remains bullish on the momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

This market on the monthly level has been making a reaction low retesting the previous low of 4236 established back December. The Channel Technical Support rests at 3608 for the next session. A closing below that will signal a break to the downside once again. The Downtrend Line resistance stands above the market at 8372 with our immediate projected resistance standing at 6685.

A possible change in trend appears due come June in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 6073 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6073 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 6684 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4290 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 months. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5123 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during October 2018 on the Monthly level at 7690 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. However, we still remain below key resistance 7527 on a closing basis.

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