Genius Brands International Inc (GNUS)

[rickn23]

My short term (about 2 years) buyout price remains the same for now. The only thing that can move it is RR & LL merchandise licensing and how good the new IP is. We won't know that for almost a year. I don't think Andy would accept any offers on the company until there is good visibility on licensing revenue.

Short term price target is different. For Q1 I'm looking for between $4.5 and $6 million in gross revenue, a net profit between $2 and $3.5 million. I'm assuming about 11 million shares for a per share profit between $0.18 and $0.318. A modest P/E of 20 would yield a share price between $3.6 and $6.4.

A lot less rational P/E of 100 yields between, $18 and $31.8.

Pick your P/E and apply it. There are stocks with P/E around 300 and some with 8.

I've assumed money for LL S1, 60% of cost payment for half to all episodes of RR S1, and the rest is from DVD/digital sales of LL and RR (about 20,000 (13-15 episode) seasons with digital split between standard ($19.99) and high definition ($24.99)).

So my numbers can be way off if Netflix doesn't have to pay for LL S1 and/or Nick Jr. doesn't pay (or pay close to) 60% of cost for RR.

There would be a small upside if there are lots of international broadcasters were delivered and had to pay for RR S1.


Edit
I would not expect a high P/E to last very long. But, GNUS has a few of good catalysts coming out before earnings reports bring people back to reason (LL merchandising, new IP and associated news, RR merchandising).


Edit 2

Just want to note that if you double the outstanding shares to 22 million the estimated share price drops to half.

I'm expecting the outstanding shares to increase dramatically this year on any share price rise.

Edit 3
For people wondering, I am not buying right now. I am waiting to see what the Q1 numbers look like.