The real reason why solar roof shingles will never make it
Utility scale solar panel manufacturers are profitable - This is because they sell modules in tens of megawatts range per manufacturing location. Silfab, Axitec, Jinko have several facilities pumping out more modules. Economies at scale always help. These companies can afford to constantly re innovate and change their product line as they already do bi annually. For solar shingle companies to have to re tool and improve will cost them a fortune. Money they do not already have.
Community solar - A very real hurdle and one that is being considered a workaround in California so they can be exempt for the new 2020 law.
Inefficiency - Current solar shingles are already 10-30% less efficient than modules. The truth is the vast majority of people purchasing solar are doing it for financial / savings. No intelligent individual is interested in paying more for less result. The ROI is dogshit with solar shingles.
Distribution - I spoke with GAF and they are having an exceptionally difficult time with this major hurdle. If GAF is having a hard time and they ARE the 800 lb gorilla in the roofing industry, everyone else will too
Lack of trust in new products
Name brand - Only two companies have the name behind them Tesla and GAF and the one that is a household name - Tesla - isn't fairing well with their CEO making more bad news than good.
50+ years of proof to less than 5 - Solar panels have been used since the late 60s. People trust actions and consistency far more than new tech. The people that can afford solar I am speaking to here.
High cost to install - Simply put, solar roof shingles for as much as everyone wants to state that its cheaper if building a new house to do solar shingles it really isn't. Whether in CA, TX, or MA it isn't, truthfully. Call a roofer and ask them give you a quote, per square for 30 year architectural shingles, then go one Energysage and get 6 quotes for solar installed with 21% LG panels and it is still much cheaper than having any of the current solar shingle companies give you a price....if you can even find a company that will do it without asking you to wait 4 months for permitting and to have the stock to install these
Too many states require panels be installed by licensed electricians- Electricians don't want to become roofers. The states that require a licensed electrician be the one to install modules? The same states that are full of affluence. Very, very few journeyman and zero master electricians want to be roofers.
Dormers, hips, valleys - So the whole point of the solar shingle is to make it as seamless as possible or as aesthetically pleasing to the eye. Unless you have a gable roof without a single dormer or drop down this defeats the very purpose.
Sistine Solar Skin - A new product that barely decreases efficiency to wrap a solar module with a color matching film to camouflage the solar and have it blend more seamlessly than solar shingles do
New homes that require solar - New homes being built today are so efficient electrically they don't need much more than only a handful of panels anyway. This compounds the problem of profitability for solar shingle installers. Solar companies make more profit on larger systems. With the already high price for solar shingles there isn't much margin to be competitive for solar companies to make enough margin to want to keep the product line. I do not foresee a roofing company or solar company taking on a partnership with RGS and keeping it more than 2 years at maximum to only see a couple.
Economy at whole - The economy has been incredible for over a decade. The longest bull market in history. Housing and jobs are through the roof. Right now people are over extending themselves and over spending on their homes they can barely afford. Take into consideration when the market turns around and it certainly will soon. Solar in general will take a massive hit. Any company not stockpiling cash will close. Companies like RGS will absolutely default as they have never been in worse conditions in their entire history as to have to advertise they are open to be acquired because they are so bad off right now. With that said, NOBODY that is willing to go solar will be spending even more for a worse return in a down market / recession.
AI
